2023-2024 Season Review by the Numbers.

I apologize to the readers as I am usually an optimist and a Lakers Homer. Normally I sell hope. But as a professional numbers-guy, this write-up has left me with the crippling realization of how entrenched this team is in Playoffs Mediocrity.

I was shocked to find how many of the Lakers' team stats were ranked between 16 and 13; literally, the majority. If you read nothing further, the analytics say "absolutely average" across the board, and the few nuggets we call "strengths" are at odds with the modern era. Before everyone blames Pelinka, or the mythical 'Rambi,' let’s put true onus where it belongs: LeBron James, and realize three major factors he contributes to these stats.

First, when you are the #1 best in the world, you can take over games and skew stats to create wins. However, when you are just another top-10 player, your weaknesses become liabilities. This is amplified by his strengths as he’s truly a bully PF with average shooting, okay 3pt shooting, and average defense when he chooses to give it effort. Truth is that few free agents want to come and sacrifice their game for LeBron, AND, his game is hard to find players that match.

Second, LeBron hasn’t adjusted his mentality, style, paycheck, or demand to touch the ball; he’s adjusted his game to fit being an old man, but in terms of the system and his contributions, he seems to still think it’s 2012. This impacts the team that can be assembled, how it functions, and the scheme. Unlike Kobe, who was a SG scoring assassin, the best play ISN’T, "Just give it to LeBron" with absolutely league middling Field Goal Stats and slightly below average 3pt shooting. This is amplified by the fact he’s a 2pt specialist, and his personal stats are slowly fading.

Third, with Davis and LeBron, the team is paint-heavy, which is at odds with the modern era. The point-per-possession stat shows exactly why this is a losing strategy. If 60-70% of the possessions and scoring come from two guys who are 2-point specialists, the team starts at a disadvantage from the scoring and efficiency perspective. The Lakers score 0.91 points per shot, while Boston averaged 1.01. With 100 shots, which is about normal for an NBA game, that’s 10 more points. That’s how simple the math is. To fix this, they need to give the ball to players with higher shooting percentages or add 3pt shooters that raise the PPP stat. To overcome this 10-point discrepancy, both Davis and LeBron would have to shoot nearly perfect and increase the mathematical portion of the point-per-possession element. They could get a lot more 3pt shooters, which LeBron had during his most successful years. Or, play lights-out defense and decrease the scoring effectiveness of their opponent. This strategy is reminiscent of the Bubble Year.

Season Review: 2023 - 2024

Rather than run down rabbit holes of analytical paralysis, I’ll try to keep this as non-numbers-focused as possible and keep it high level. Before everyone gets hung up on the season’s results, remember there was a stretch of games after the IST when Ham said, "the team sh-t the bed" and went 1-9. With four or more wins, the team would have been solidly in the 5 or 6 seed. Reaves also mentioned, "We led the Nuggets 70% of the time… and the year before, we lost all games by less than 5 points." It’s also worth mentioning the team had the 5th toughest SoS schedule. Let’s translate this: "We were a solid 2nd or 3rd Round Playoffs team. We just got a bad hand with the seeding."

Being stuck in Playoff Purgatory isn’t untenable for most franchises, except we’re talking about the Los Angeles Lakers.

The rest of my words in this article describe mediocrity. Given the dearth of free agency additions, there’s not much to move the needle from #15 to the top 5 in any statistic. What we saw last year is what we have this year, which is mid-teens across the board. Rather than be dour, let’s give some praise to Ham’s old school coaching: the team was #1 in Points-in-the-Paint, #2 in 2pt shot conversion, #5 in assists per game, and league best at avoiding fouls. In the 80s, this was a recipe for success. Except in the 2020s, this isn’t a winning solution mainly due to the team’s poor 3pt attempts which led them to be #17 in points-per-possession. Yes, they were #8 in 3pt percentage, but #17 in 3 point attempts. Just by a statistical look, aka "Moneyball," they left points on the table by not taking enough 3pt shots as they were a good 3pt team. (Except, that would mean fewer shots for LeBron or Davis… I digress.)

Here are two maddening stats: #15 in Offensive rating and #15 in Defensive rating. This is pretty much exactly at the league average. The Lakers were nearly 5 points behind the league’s best on both sides. Here’s another: #30. That’s where the team ranked in offensive rebounds. Yes, dead last in the league. That’s almost 2.5 less than the league average and 4 less than the top team. The team got an offensive rebound only 24% of the time, or 1 out of 4. Yup, shoot and run back to the other end and get ready for defense. Absolutely mediocre in all categories, except non-existent in offensive rebounding, not enough 3pt shooting, and no free agency additions.

Jeanie (aka the Buss Family Trust) got cheap hired a rookie coach and got substandard results; you get what you pay for.

Looking into the future:

Somehow, the team is looking to trade the leagues 6th best 3pt shooter (DLo), hoping for a miracle trade that fixes everything. As if they are hoping that moving up 4-5 positions on defense is going to make up for dropping further back on 3pt shooting, the team’s Achilles heel. Is it any coincidence Reddick said, "More 3pt shooting, greater emphasis on offensive rebounds, easy points in transition, and more movement to increase spacing and easy buckets?" This is an acknowledgment of the team’s statistical weaknesses and pretty much saying, "we need a modern system despite LeBron being old and unable to play in it."

It takes two to tango, and it seems no one wanted to join the Lakers. Klay Thompson, a guy who grew up in LA and whose dad is on the Lakers’ payroll, said, "It seems like the same fishbowl" and chose our competitor. If you notice, no major star gives the team interest; they all seem to pass and end up somewhere else. LeBron squeezed the team for money and left almost zero options for improvement other than the team gutting its future draft picks to make a move. It’s not a surprise; LeBron’s taken the same tactic his entire career. The team is still using the league’s best PF as a center, and band-aiding one problem (defense) for his game-changing offense. LeBron still thinks he’s 28 and can be a SF, despite the moves of a nearly 40-year-old dude.

In reality, there are no tangible ways to significantly improve our team stats (and performance). Sure, with a better coach we might be able to move up 5 slots in the team rankings, but we’ve now barely jumped into the top 10. We haven’t fixed the offensive rebounding issue from a personnel standpoint. We haven’t added more 3pt shooters, and truthfully, we’re simply replaying last season hoping for a better result.

And then at the end of this season, we face the same headwinds again. Yup, we’re officially in Playoff Purgatory. What does the team need? A center solution that can move Davis back to PF and get offensive rebounds. Better defense, which is always going to be hamstrung by the whims of an old man, and an overall lack of talent. Randomly, 3pt shooting isn't amazing, but after what seems like 15 years of trying, we actually have enough 3pt shooting that it's not a liability, except the team is actively trying to trade its best shooter.

Getting a center that moves Davis back to his best position is unlikely. Improving the 3pt shooting percentage isn’t happening if you plan to get rid of DLo. Adding another 3pt shooter, with the pennies LeBron left, is unlikely. It'sunrealistic to think that we can replace his 7.2 attempts per game and improve on his .415 shooting. Truth be told, as a 3pt specialist he's relatively efficient. And while Knecht might be an upgrade to Reaves, we’re only talking about upgrading Reaves, a 6th man masquerading as a starter. No other player on the Lakers averaged better than .385 last season.

Statistically, the numbers, offseason moves, and track record suggest that we’re facing another year of mediocrity. At least the same analysis says that we’re good enough to avoid the Play-in.

Get ready for all the hype and drama that comes along with the LeBron-show and a 2nd or 3rd round flameout. From my seat, this is exactly what Jeanie, the business person, is hoping for while she runs out LeBron’s last two seasons. This is of LeBron’s making and her hands are sorta tied. Even the jump in salary next year from the new broadcast agreement won’t help as we’re already so far over the cap, it’s not changing anything.

Also, take notice: the team is carefully stocking its cupboards for "Life after LeBron" and putting a very big emphasis on player development. They are very keen to keep their draft picks and are not ruining their future to chase LeBron’s fleeting glory. This is hard for Lakers fans to accept, but it’s probably the shrewdest move Jeanie and Pelinka can make. So before you suggest any trade or movement, think about if it improves the team in 2 years.

In reality, LeBron’s biding his time collecting a paycheck until he gets a team in Vegas. Jeanie’s being a shrewd owner milking LeBron’s twilight. And for us fans, two more years of LeBron and two more years of rebuilding will be the soonest we can hope to see another championship and climb out of mediocrity.

(All stats thanks to NBA com & basketball-reference).