The Most Important Matchups and Best Bets for Wednesday’s NBA Slate
The NBA is offering up another huge slate of basketball on Wednesday. Things get underway with a matinee between the Bucks and the Timberwolves, and then there’s an 11-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
The matchup between the Wizards and Kings should be one of the most entertaining contests on the slate. The total on that game is currently listed at 241.5 points, and the Wizards are slim two-point favorites. Who has the edge in this projected high-scoring affair?
Let’s dive in.
KEY MATCHUPS
This game should feature a ton of points. The Kings rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season, and the Wizards aren’t much better at 26th. The Wizards have also played at the fastest pace in the league, so these bad defenses should be turbocharged in this matchup.
The best unit in this matchup is the Kings’ offense. They’ve averaged 111.4 points per 100 possessions this season, which is the 11th-highest mark in the league. That makes them significantly better than the Wizards on offense, who rank merely 22nd.
That said, the Kings are dealing with a couple of key injuries at the moment. Richaun Holmes is currently listed as doubtful, and he’s been a huge factor for them this season. He’s averaged a career-high 30.0 minutes per game this season, and he’s responded with 14.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per game.
His impact on the Kings also extends beyond the traditional box score. He’s been one of their most important players in terms of Net Rating, with the Kings increasing their mark by +9.5 points per 100 possessions with Holmes on the court this season. Ultimately, they’ve averaged been outscored by an average of -9.3 points per 100 possessions with Holmes off the court this season.
Marvin Bagley III is also currently sidelined for the Kings, which means Hassan Whiteside will receive most of the center minutes on Wednesday. Whiteside has had some strong moments in his career, but he’s been dreadful for the Kings this season. They’ve decreased their Net Rating by -10.2 points per 100 possessions with Whiteside on the floor, so the downgrade from Holmes to Whiteside is a big deal.
Additionally, Buddy Hield is questionable for this matchup. He’s also had a positive impact when on the floor for the Kings this season, so his absence would also be a big deal.
Ultimately, I like the Wizards’ chances to cover if Hield suits up, and I love their chances if Hield is ultimately ruled out.
LINE MOVEMENT
There has already been some significant line movement on today’s slate.
The Pistons have seen the biggest line move in their favor. They were initially listed as 10.5-point underdogs vs. the Clippers on FanDuel Sportsbook, but they’re now down to just +3.0.
The big reason for the line movement is the Clippers’ injury situation. They will be without four of their usual starters in this matchup, with Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka, and Patrick Beverley all sidelined for various reasons.
The Clippers have been one of the best teams in basketball this season when they’ve been at full strength, but they’re unsurprisingly very beatable without their top options in the lineup. The Clippers have played 575 minutes this season with Leonard and George off the court, and they’ve been outscored by -4.4 points per 100 possessions in that situation. It remains to be seen if the Pistons can take advantage of this matchup, but they certainly have a better chance than if Leonard and George were playing.
BETTING BREAKDOWNS
BEST BETS FROM THE SPORTSGRID BETTING MODEL
Find out who our betting model likes in each of today’s 12 NBA contests, including Wizards vs. Kings, and Nets vs. 76ers.
PLAYER PROP BETS
Joe Cervenka highlights a few player props providing value on Wednesday’s slate of games at FanDuel Sportsbook.