#5 Creighton Bluejays vs. #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks, and Betting Preview for NCAA Basketball Game
#5 Creighton Bluejays vs. #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs Game Information
#5 Creighton Bluejays vs. #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Date: 3/28/21
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Hinkle Fieldhouse
TV Coverage: CBS
#5 Creighton Bluejays vs. #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: (Open: Creighton +670 / Gonzaga -1000) (Current: Creighton +660 / Gonzaga -1000)
Spread: (Open: Gonzaga -13.5) (Current: Gonzaga -13.5)
Total: (Open: 158.5) (Current: 158)
NCAA Championship Odds: Creighton +5500 / Gonzaga +155
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#5 Creighton Bluejays vs. #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs News and Notes
Creighton lists two players on the injury report: Modestas Kancleris and Rati Andronikashvili are both ruled out for the season with knee injuries. Neither player was involved in a game this season.
Gonzaga does not list any players on the injury report.
Notable Trends
- The total is 4-0-1 to the under in Creighton’s last five games when facing a team with a win percentage over .600.
- The total is 6-1 to the under in Creighton’s last seven NCAA Tournament games.
- Creighton is 0-6 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. On a 7-0 run to the over in Oregon’s last seven games following an outright win.
- Gonzaga is 5-1 ATS in their last six games on a neutral floor as a favorite.
- The total is 12-3 to the over in Gonzaga’s last 15 games at a neutral site.
#5 Creighton Bluejays vs. #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs Predictions and Picks
The Creighton Bluejays will take a huge step up in class on Sunday when they face the country’s best team in the Gonzaga Bulldogs. This spread opened with Gonzaga as a 13.5-point favorite, and there hasn’t been much movement at that price despite the Bulldogs attracting 80% of the money on only 47% of the tickets placed. While my initial lean would be to lay the double-digits with the favorite, I prefer to target the total, where my model shows a bigger edge.
This figures to be an interesting matchup on paper due to the contrasting style of both teams. Creighton is 156th in the country with 71.6 possessions per game, while Gonzaga is ranked 18th with 76.4 per game. Creighton has profiled as an under team this season, as evidenced by 16 of their 29 games staying under the total with one push. In fact, in their last three games, Creighton’s average of 68.2 possessions per game is below their season average. I expect them to continue to try to slow the game down, but it will likely be to their disadvantage. They’ll be facing a Gonzaga team that’s 11th in the country in allowing their opponents .899 points per possession.
This is a step up in class that I don’t the Bluejays will be ready for. It’s key to note that in the last five games when Creighton has faced a team with a winning percentage over .600, their games are 4-0-1 to the under. If the pace of the game is slower, shouldn’t trouble Gonzaga much as the Bulldogs led the country with an effective field goal percentage of 61%.
I fully expect Gonzaga to get their shots off, but it likely will be a long day at the office for the Bluejays. The total has gone under in Creighton’s last four games, and I think we’ll see that occur again on Sunday.
My model shows a four-point edge to the under, and that’s where I’ll look to place my action.
The Pick: Under 158