Saturday Night Five: As with football, Oregon stands to gain at USC’s expense (but the situations are nothing alike)
Instant reaction to Pac-12 developments on and off the court …
1. Oregon’s living right
Three months later, history has repeated atop the Pac-12: USC’s frustrated, Oregon’s sitting pretty, and conference policy is under fire.
In December, Oregon finished second in the North but was elevated into the Pac-12 championship game after Washington couldn’t play because of COVID.
Now, the Ducks are on the brink of the No. 1 seed despite playing fewer games.
In December, USC was left fuming as a division winner forced to play on a short week against a rested runner-up.
Now, USC (and UCLA) are frustrated that Oregon postponed two games against the Bruins but played a makeup at home on the final week of the season.
It sure seems like Pac-12 policy has been crafted to favor the Ducks, twice.
The Hotline is here to lend clarity and context, because the situations are not identical in any form or fashion.
In December, the conference office was guilty on all counts of mismanagement:
It elevated a runner-up that had two weeks of rest into the championship game to face a division winner playing on a short week that had earned the opportunity.
That was wrong every which way. The Ducks didn’t deserve the chance, USC had every right to be irate, we criticized the conference for its decision, and ESPN rendered its verdict by mocking the Pac-12 on bowl selection day.
So that’s the launch point from which we’re viewing the basketball issue.
And here’s our conclusion:
The conference didn’t screw up this time, didn’t favor Oregon unfairly and didn’t put the Bruins or Trojans at a competitive disadvantage.
The Ducks do deserve the opportunity to play for the No. 1 seed Sunday in Corvallis.
And the Los Angeles schools — for UCLA is neck-deep in this, too — have far, far less reason to stew than USC did in December.
Now, let’s dig in …
2. The backstory
As many fans might know, UCLA and Oregon were scheduled to play Dec. 23 in Eugene, only to have the game postponed because of COVID testing issues with the officials.
A makeup date was set for Jan. 19, but the Ducks were unable to play because of a COVID pause.
They also canceled a three-game swing through Los Angeles in late January (one game at USC, two at UCLA) because of a second COVID pause.
Hoping to match two of its best teams, the conference eventually arranged for the Ducks and Bruins to collide this week, slotting the game Wednesday in Eugene.
Oregon’s victory vaulted it into first place, one win (Sunday) from clinching the top seed, and the Bruins were left to simmer.
Now, here’s what you might not know:
— The Ducks went on COVID pause one week before the first makeup with UCLA (Jan. 19 in Eugene).
At the time, coach Dana Altman agreed to play two games in Pauley Pavilion during an upcoming trip:
The first, on Jan. 28, was the Ducks’ originally scheduled visit; the second, on Feb. 1, was the makeup from Jan. 19.
That’s right: Altman agreed to give up a home game against UCLA and play it on the road, as part of a three-games-in-five-days gauntlet in L.A.
And he agreed to it knowing full well that point guard Will Richardson might not be back from a thumb injury.
The Ducks spent 10 days on pause, lost to Oregon State and then had to pause again before the L.A. trip.
(All COVID test results are confirmed by university medical personnel and reported to the conference office.)
— And here’s what else you might not know: The Pac-12 planned for just such a scenario.
According to multiple sources, all makeup dates offered by the conference by Feb. 15 required mutual consent by the teams involved; but after Feb. 15, the conference could dictate the schedule.
How did policy become reality? Here we go (per the sources) …
Following the postponement of the UCLA-Oregon game in Pauley on Feb. 1 — again, that was originally’s Oregon’s home game — the conference discussed with the Ducks and Bruins two Monday dates in the middle of February for a makeup game in Eugene.
Neither worked for the Bruins.
At that point, Oregon agreed to jam a trip to USC into its schedule on Monday, Feb. 22 — the makeup of the postponed Jan. 30 date. (The Ducks would get slaughtered in the Galen Center.)
But once Feb. 15 arrived, the conference took control of rescheduling and slotted UCLA-Oregon for this week in Eugene, in an attempt to balance out the number of home-road games.
Had UCLA agreed to play in Eugene on Feb. 22, our reading of the schedule indicates that a window would have opened this week for the teams to play in L.A., giving UCLA the home game against Oregon that it wanted all along.
3. Blame game: canceled
Vital point on the scenario outlined above: UCLA didn’t take either of the mid-February Monday games in Eugene because they weren’t best for the program — there were travel and academic conflicts — and that’s fine.
This is a crazy season with challenges on numerous fronts for each team.
There is no blame to be assigned anywhere.
— That includes the Ducks:
Altman was willing to give up a home game and play twice in Pauley without his point guard.
He then agreed to play at USC on a Monday in advance of a trip to the Bay Area — all of which forced Oregon into three road games in six days and seven total games in 14 days.
— And that includes the conference office:
The Pac-12 gave UCLA options that, if taken, could have avoided the very scenario that has left the Bruins and Trojans frustrated this week.
Granted, they were not good options — we should be completely clear on that. But this is the season of bad options.
We get that the L.A. schools are frustrated. The Ducks might win the conference while playing two fewer games. (Of course, out one of those two could have been made up.)
From our vantage point, Altman did everything possible to play as many games as possible, and the conference office did its best to be fair to all involved.
What’s more, USC’s football team faced a clear, egregious competitive disadvantage in the championship game:
The Trojans were play on back-to-back short weeks (Sunday, then Saturday, then Friday), while the Ducks had two weeks to rest.
But there was no such imbalance when the Ducks and Bruins met in Eugene on Wednesday.
The Bruins played the previous Saturday at Colorado, flew home for a few days, then headed to Eugene.
But Oregon played in Berkeley on Saturday, then faced Arizona on Monday — an 11-point victory in which their top-three players all played at least 35 minutes.
I’m not sure which is more difficult:
A Saturday road game followed by a Wednesday road game … or a Saturday road game followed by a Monday home game, then a Wednesday home game.
But I know that situation is nothing like what happened in football.
Also, this is for a seed, that was for a championship.
4. The final tally
Overall, we give the Pac-12 office high marks for resourcefulness and the coaches kudos for flexibility.
Assuming the Ducks and Beavers tip off as scheduled on Sunday, the conference will end up playing 116 of the 120 games on the original league schedule.
That’s 96.7 percent — a remarkable feat considering the extent of COVID spread during the season, particularly December and January, and the demands of contact tracing and quarantine protocols at the local levels.
The teams were willing to play three games per week and, crucially, the conference had options for creating windows for makeup games in the final weeks.
In other words: Pac-12 basketball was the antithesis of Pac-12 football.
(Because the presidents waited so long to decide on the football restart — then insisted everyone move together on Nov. 7 — there was zero margin for error.)
The percentage of basketball games played by the Pac-12 compares favorably to its Power Six peers, according to data from the Wichita Eagle:
Big Ten: 97.1 percent (of league games played)Pac-12: 96.7 percentBig 12: 94.4 percentSEC: 92.1 percentBig East: 87.3 percentACC: 81.3 percent
In that regard, as well, Pac-12 basketball was the antithesis of Pac-12 football.
5. Matchups at T-Mobile
Where do we stand with one day remaining?
USC’s last-second victory this afternoon in Pauley Pavilion creates the following two scenarios for the tournament pairings:
— The matchups if Oregon beats OSU:
Opening round: No. 6 Stanford vs. No. 11 CalQuarterfinals: Winner plays No. 3 Colorado
Opening round: No. 7 Utah vs. No. 10 WashingtonQuarterfinals: Winner plays No. 2 USC
Opening round: No. 8 ASU vs. No. 9 Washington StateQuarterfinals: Winner plays No. 1 Oregon
Quarterfinals: No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 5 Oregon State
— The matchups if Oregon loses to OSU:
Opening round: No. 6 Stanford vs. No. 11 CalQuarterfinals: Winner plays No. 3 Colorado
Opening round: No. 7 Utah vs. No. 10 WashingtonQuarterfinals: Winner plays No. 2 Oregon
Opening round: No. 8 ASU vs. No. 9 Washington StateQuarterfinals: Winner plays No. 1 USC
Quarterfinals: No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 5 Oregon State
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