To foul? Or not to foul? That is the question
0
5
I meant to launch this the night of/morning after the Davidson game, since the game thread, and Twitter for that matter, got so many impassioned responses re: the Flyers, better yet Grant's, failure or reluctance to foul in the final possession of regulation while up 3 points.
My objective is to outline all of the considerations and variables that might go into evaluating this decision/strategy, as well as solicit feedback from others on overlooked thoughts or the pure "analytics" of the situation(s).
I also had a thought as to why our regular beat writers and media haven't asked the question to Grant directly, be it re: the specific scenario or the philosophy in general. If it's been asked, I've not seen/heard it. And if I'm Grant, why would I answer that? Why would I offer any type of indication on how I might handle that situation?
I think we've mostly come to realize that Grant prefers not to foul, given his history at UD. At least that's my opinion re: his strategy.
Me personally, I'm a supporter of fouling in these situations.
So what factors into these situations?
Theres your gut feel of the game, in general
How good of a 3-point shooting team is your opponent?
How good of a rebounding team are you?
How good of an offensive rebounding team is your opponent?
How good of a free throw shooting team is your opponent?
How good of a free throw shooting team are YOU? This could be both your guards/wings that might be handling the ball at next inbound or your frontcourt who might be securing a rebound of their missed free throw, be it intentional or not.
How good are you at handling the ball and avoiding turnovers?
Whats your player foul(s) situation?
Whats your team foul(s) situation?
Whats the basketball IQ, and more specifically the defensive IQ, of the players I have on the court? This may be THE most important, but overlooked, variable.
How much time is on the clock?
Where are they taking the ball out?
If fouling, where and when to foul?
If fouling, who to foul?
While giving up a deflating three pointer would be a huge letdown and momentum swing, how would the matchups fare in overtime?
Whats their team/player foul situation, should overtime be needed?
I'll post my thoughts/perspective, some answers in a reply with where others will presumably comment. They'll be both in general and others related to the Davidson situation.
My objective is to outline all of the considerations and variables that might go into evaluating this decision/strategy, as well as solicit feedback from others on overlooked thoughts or the pure "analytics" of the situation(s).
I also had a thought as to why our regular beat writers and media haven't asked the question to Grant directly, be it re: the specific scenario or the philosophy in general. If it's been asked, I've not seen/heard it. And if I'm Grant, why would I answer that? Why would I offer any type of indication on how I might handle that situation?
I think we've mostly come to realize that Grant prefers not to foul, given his history at UD. At least that's my opinion re: his strategy.
Me personally, I'm a supporter of fouling in these situations.
So what factors into these situations?
Theres your gut feel of the game, in general
How good of a 3-point shooting team is your opponent?
How good of a rebounding team are you?
How good of an offensive rebounding team is your opponent?
How good of a free throw shooting team is your opponent?
How good of a free throw shooting team are YOU? This could be both your guards/wings that might be handling the ball at next inbound or your frontcourt who might be securing a rebound of their missed free throw, be it intentional or not.
How good are you at handling the ball and avoiding turnovers?
Whats your player foul(s) situation?
Whats your team foul(s) situation?
Whats the basketball IQ, and more specifically the defensive IQ, of the players I have on the court? This may be THE most important, but overlooked, variable.
How much time is on the clock?
Where are they taking the ball out?
If fouling, where and when to foul?
If fouling, who to foul?
While giving up a deflating three pointer would be a huge letdown and momentum swing, how would the matchups fare in overtime?
Whats their team/player foul situation, should overtime be needed?
I'll post my thoughts/perspective, some answers in a reply with where others will presumably comment. They'll be both in general and others related to the Davidson situation.