What a 2021 Lakers team with Chris Paul Might Look Like
What a 2021 Lakers team with Chris Paul might look like.
NBA cap expert and Bleacher Report writer Eric Pincus posted the following article yesterday.
In short, among other scenarios, it lays out a trade that would bring Chris Paul to the Lakers. Without getting into the cap machinations that Pincus highlights, it would basically take a trade involving Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma, Avery Bradley (opted in), JaVale McGee (opted in), Quinn Cook (team option exercised), and the Lakers 2021 1st round draft pick (#28) signed and traded as well, just to make the salaries work.
Along with taking LA out of the 2021 free agency sweepstakes (Paul isn’t opting out of $40+ million next offseason), it also leans out the upcoming season’s roster significantly. Still, given LeBron’s timeline and Paul’s surprisingly effective playoff run this year, along with their off-court friendship, it seems like a trade Rob Pelinka and crew will definitely take a look at.
Therefore, leaving the argument of whether it is a good idea or not for others to debate, I simply decided to try to figure out what a 2021 Lakers team with Chris Paul would look like. Here it is.
Who’s still here?
After the above trade (and assuming Anthony Davis re-signs of course, because otherwise this is all moot), LA would only have LeBron James, AD, Chris Paul, Alex Caruso, and Talen Horton-Tucker under contract. (Devontae Cacock is on another year as a 2-way as well) Also, because of the extra $8 million or so in salary LA would take on in the deal, they would probably be limited to the Tax Payer Mid-Level Exemption for next year, the Bi-Annual Exemption, and then only minimums after that.
(Full MLE would trigger a hard cap, and they would definitely slam into it with Paul added, so Tax Payer MLE is likely)
Fortunately, they would still retain full bird rights on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and early bird rights on Rajon Rondo, meaning filling out the roster would not be impossible. They would also have the ability to offer 20% raises to Dion Waiters, Markieff Morris, and Dwight Howard as well, although that $ may not get it done for these guys.
So who might they keep or chase?
In this scenario I’d guess that LA would most definitely want to keep both Rondo and KCP. The former proved his worth and silenced fans, and the latter would slide right in next to Paul in the starting lineup as the teams shooting guard.
The Klutch connection and team fit matter too, and both lean toward LA keeping KCP. As a 27 year old 2-way player in his prime who’s 3-point shooting finally looks legit (38% 2 of last 3 seasons, same this playoffs), it seems like something they need to try to do whether they get Paul or not.
Since LA abandons it 2021 offseason cap dreams with the acquisition of Paul, I wouldn’t be surprised to see something like 3 years, $40-$45 million for KCP. It’s probably a slight overpay, but given LA’s long term cap situation and the potential offer from Atlanta many are expecting, the dollars are moot. Whether he played for $20 million a year or the minimum, it won’t affect this year’s cap/roster, or likely next year’s either, assuming they stay over the cap.
Not sure if Rondo could get more than a minimum deal elsewhere, but LA may give him a 1+1 again plus a small raise. Fortunately, with CP3 in house LA would have its 2nd playmaker, so even losing Rondo is survivable. Still, I think they would try to find a way to keep ‘Do (hate this nickname), since like KCP, his deal won’t affect LA’s exceptions or cap. As an Early Bird FA (2 years with LA), they could give Rondo up to almost $10 million a season if they wanted.
At center, arguments for and against Dwight could be made, but considering Denver looked like the 2nd best team in the Western Conference this postseason, his value against Nikola Jokic in particular cannot be understated. Still, DeMarcus Cousins was LA (and LeBron’s) first choice, so whether a Chris Paul trade is made or not, I’d lean towards Cousins being the starting center next year, if healthy. Just a guess. (Tristan Thompson may be in play here too, but we’ll see if he’d come for a min deal)
As far as the much more handsome, clearly smarter Morris brother goes, it feels like he could be the right guy for the Taxpayers MLE, if he’ll go for it. It’s a little low $ for sure (like $5.7 mil, I think), but another 1 year deal in LA would give Pelinka the ability to offer Morris up to 105% of the average salary next summer/offseason. So, a 1 year deal this time around may be doable with a handshake about a longer deal next year. He was a good fit.
Waiters is a weird one. He is probably the most talented player in his prime that LA could possibly get for the minimum, so I’d bet Pelinka and co. give it another try, only with the 20% raise they can offer as a 2nd year player. He may get slightly better offers, but if he’ll play for the minimum + raise, he may be here and worth the roll of the dice.
Regarding the Bi-Annual (a little under $4mil), I think LA would try for a backup wing with a little more size after coughing up both DG and Kuzma in the CP trade. I’d bet Portland (who is right up against the cap) uses it $1.8 million dollar opt-out in Trevor Ariza’s contact rather than pay him almost $13 million next year. If so, he would be ideal as a backup 3. He played almost 30 minutes a game last season, and shot 44/37/84 from the field. May get better offers too, but at 35 years old, chasing another title may be enough to tempt him to come.
After that, guys like Kyle Korver or even Reggie Bullock (if healthy) seem like good SF buys at the minimum as well.
Dud’s may come back as a third string PF for the vets min too. 15th man? Cool.
What does this roster look like?
If all of the above came true, it might look like this.
PG: Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, (vet minimum)
SG: KCP, Alex Caruso, Talen Horton-Tucker
SF: LeBron James, Trevor Ariza, Kyle Korver
PF: Anthony Davis, Markieff Morris, Jared Dudley
C: DeMarcus Cousins, (vet min), (vet min)
Even with Devontae Cacock under a 2-way contract for another year, a reliably healthy backup for Cousins is a must (Alex Len?). But other than that, LA brings back most of its 8-9 man playoff rotation from this year, only replacing Danny Green with Chris Paul, Howard with Cousins, and Kuzma with Ariza. Cousins’ health is a wildcard for sure, but the other spots seem like they could be significant upgrades.
Whatever LA decides to do, this deal would reshape the team significantly, and bring one of the toughest, driven, most talented guys in the league to LA in Paul.
See some better options for the exemptions, or hate this plan altogether? Now that LA is playing with house money, it sure sounds like fun to me.