What should the Colts actually expect from Jacoby Brissett?

Jacoby Brissett has big shoes to fill after Andrew Luck’s retirement.

Charles McDonad and Adam Stites went back and forth on the Colts’ new starting quarterback.

The whirlwind of Andrew Luck’s retirement has mostly died down at this point. He’s gone and the Colts are moving on with Jacoby Brissett. They’re so committed to that plan (not that they have much of a choice) they gave a contract extension to their new starting quarterback.

Brissett was the Colts’ starter during a rough 4-12 season in 2017. In the two years since then, the roster has improved immensely and Indianapolis turned itself into a Super Bowl contender.

But are the Colts still a contender without Luck? And if they are, does the contract extension signed by Brissett make sense? Two SB Nation writers — Charles McDonald and Adam Stites — have some thoughts on the Colts’ new starter.

His new contract is due to pay him $30 million over the next two seasons

Charles: The Colts put themselves in a great spot with this deal. Brissett’s average of $15 million per year made him the 20th-highest paid quarterback, according to Spotrac. If Brissett plays well enough to convince the Colts to build around him, that’s great. If not, he becomes a bit of a pricy backup. Still, that’s not going to hurt the Colts with their abundance of cap space — they’re currently projected to have over $140 million for 2020!

While it’s a great deal for the Colts, it’s not exactly a great deal for Brissett.

Adam: Yeah, that’s the part I don’t understand. Clearly it makes sense for the Colts, but what’s in it for Brissett?

He had an outrageous amount of leverage after Luck retired. Put together a great season in a contract year and the Colts’ hands are tied. They’d have to give him a contract that pays well over $30 million per year or give him the franchise tag. Either way, the Colts were going to have to pay up to keep him.

Hell, even a decent season would’ve been enough to keep the leverage. Brissett just needed to convince the Colts it’s not worth starting over in 2020. Getting $15 million per year — something he negotiated on his own without an agent — is only a win for him if he’s bad this season.

He’ll be ridiculously cheap if he actually plays well. Do we think he’ll play well?

Charles: Brissett is a talented quarterback who’s capable of making throws that a lot of quarterbacks can’t dream of. He’s big, mobile, and has a rocket launcher for a right arm.

Furthermore, this is much better roster than the one Brissett played with in 2017 while Luck was out with a shoulder injury. The offensive line that was a disaster during that season now has young upgrades like Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith. They’re being coached by Frank Reich, who is better offensive mind than Chuck Pagano. Indianapolis also has young, speedy playmakers outside of T.Y. Hilton who weren’t available to Brissett in 2017.

With the infrastructure that the Colts have set up, it’s still very possible that they can win the AFC South. The Jaguars’ offense might be a bit better with Nick Foles, but they still lack playmakers. Houston now has a left tackle, but the rest of its offensive line is still shaky at best. The Titans, well, they’re the Titans.

Even if they don’t take the division, they can at least get a wild card spot with Brissett at the helm.

Adam: The best thing about all of that is Brissett doesn’t have to do too much. The Colts should lean on that much-improved offensive line and run the ball often with Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines. That rocket launcher arm will really come in handy if he’s dropping bombs to Hilton off of an effective play-action.

I’m still not sure we’ve seen enough to believe that Brissett will have the consistency on a play-to-play basis to be a reliable star to build around, though.

Part of that probably has to do with his inexperience the last time he had significant play time. Maybe a couple more years of growth will make him a more efficient quarterback. The talent around him will certainly help.

Charles: Yeah, I think from an on-field standpoint, the only thing he’s really missing is his ability to quickly make decisions — and it’s something that’s really hindered him from being a bonafide starting quarterback. However, there’s a chance that a year and half with Reich and the new coaching staff has fixed that. After all, they did get Luck’s sack total to drop from 41 in 2016 to 18 in 2018.

How do we feel about the Colts’ future if Brissett flops?

Adam: The roster is in great shape, no matter how Brissett does. Even if the Colts decide to replace him, they still have a great offensive line, pretty solid skill-position players, and a defense that keeps adding young talent.

So it’s hard for me to imagine the Colts bottoming out and having another four-win season any time soon.

Buuuuut, I can absolutely envision a scenario where the Colts get stuck in quarterback purgatory. That’s the space in between being a Super Bowl contender and a team bad enough to tank for a top draft pick. Indianapolis was fortunate that two terrible seasons meant picking Peyton Manning and Luck both at No. 1 overall.

This Colts team is too good to do that. If Brissett’s bad, it’s not going to be easy to find a quarterback capable of winning it all. Those guys don’t grow on trees.

Charles: Purgatory is the worst place for the Colts to be, and I’m with you: Indianapolis probably won’t be terrible enough to land a top-five pick. I will say though, if Brissett is bad — I mean epically bad — this team is still in a place where a promising rookie quarterback can immediately bring them back into playoff contention.

They have the offensive line, they have a boatload of cap space, they have a smart defensive coordinator, they have an All-Pro linebacker in Darius Leonard — the pieces are ready for a Super Bowl run. Even if the Colts to manage to get stuck in 8-8 or 9-7 hell, they might be able to pull themselves out of it quickly, just based on how they’ve set themselves up.