Next Gen | Luka Doncic

Previously on Next Gen:

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Trae Young was all but invisible against the Warriors on 11/13. He'll bounce back. The Warriors also barely beat the Hawks that night—will they bounce back? More on this later. For now, a refresher on what we're doing here:

As the NBA's pantheon of top players evolves, longstanding greats fall off and the most driven challengers ascend. The last of the 90's all-timers are nearly gone—hyperlink tribute to Dirk Nowitzki and Vince Carter must be given. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul have gone from we-got-next to top of the mountain to hitting their twilight (LeBron excluded, but cyborgs don't 100% count).

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, and Joel Embiid are breaking the doors to the pantheon down. James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are well-established neighbors of King James. So, it's time to start identifying who's next, to evaluate the rookies and sophomores who could one day have an argument as a top 10 player in the NBA. As the Dubs go through the season, we'll look at their opponents and pick out potential candidates for greatness. We'll evaluate these Next Gen-ers so far and compare their game to past players, prognosticate how they'll fare against the Warriors, and offer projections on where they'll be in 5 years.

Next Up

Luka Doncic, F, Dallas Mavericks (Rookie)

HT/WT/Wingspan

6'8/228/6'11

Standard Stats

19.1/6.4/4.2 on 46/39/75 shooting splits

Who He Plays Like

This is a tough one. Generally the term "unicorn", corny as it may be (it was coined by KD after all), is meant to describe a singular player who has no real previous comp. But, there's also some sense of freakish-ness involved when you use that descriptor. The player is 7'3 but can drain from 28 feet and handle the ball. The player is a 6'11 point-guard who can dunk from the free throw line, easily. While there's no one player you can compare Doncic to, he also isn't a physical freak. His blend of shooting and shot-making, size, ball handling and playmaking, however, are freakish.

I hear James Harden a lot, but I don't see it. They check a lot of the same boxes, but James Harden's scoring, prodigious as it is, is much more robotic than organic. In other words, James Harden doesn't make shots from everywhere on the floor. At 19, Doncic already has a pretty devastating post game. He has floaters and runners for days, and a step-back three point shot that's Steph-like. I know it sounds crazy, but the below-average athleticism, court sense and elite shooting and shot-making from everywhere on the floor...he's like if you made Steph 6'8, took his NBA2K skill slider for 3s down 10% and moved the passing skill slider up 10%.

Or, screw it, let's just call him a milionaire's Boris Diaw with alpha-swagger and a much better shot.

Or...I mean you could go with narwhal. Basically almost as rare as a unicorn, but you kind of feel like you've sen them before.

One-Word Description of His Game

Polished

New Nickname Pitch

Slo(venian) Motion

Projection

MVP ( high), Perennial All-Star (if he stays healthy, lock)

When We'll See Him

Saturday, 11/17 at 5:30pm (PST)

How He's Playing Right Now

He leads all rookies in scoring, ranks second in assists, and is third in rebounds per game. And that's with him sort of sharing lead ball handler duties with Dennis Smith Jr., which should change. Over his previous four games, he's averaging 17/6/3.8 on 44/42/82 splits and just under 4 turnovers a game. He's the best rookie the Warriors have seen so far.

The most telling thing about Doncic's game is how polished he is as a scorer. He's got the court sense and preternatural passing ability on lock, but I don't know if anyone thought he'd be able to make such a variety of shots this quickly into his NBA career. Let's run down that variety, starting with the one he's surprised me with most, the runner/floater game:

Lamarcus was just like huh, what now? You're going 14 ft runner on me? A couple possessions later, he hits LA with it again.

His size and wingspan are somehow deceptive. When fives come over to help this can happen:

This may just be bad defense at the point of attack, but once he rumbles past Terrance Ferguson, the right-handed teardrop off the right foot goes over Steven Adams effortlessly.

It doesn't totally look eye-popping, but he uses the screen perfectly, hits the help defender with a subtle hesitation and somehow gets the edge, before floating it over the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, rather easily I might add. It doesn't seem like a play where two guys would be falling over and another would get frozen in his tracks. But Luka's game is polished—defenders are unsure of what he's going to do. Because he can do so much. Yeah, but what about the mid-range? You might ask (psyche nobody ever asks that). But, yep:

Again, around the high pick with a sudden, sneaky cross but then as he gets the help sliding at the top of the paint, he steps back (foreshadowing) slightly and drains a 20 footer. Notice on the bottom of the screen as it goes in, Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert falling to the floor. Something about Luka vs. the Jazz, dudes just fall a lot. But it speaks to something about his game. His moves and shot-attempts are unexpected and surprisingly quick-hitting—primary and off-ball defenders are equally discombobulated.

He's basically a grizzled veteran utilizing the high screen, but he can isolate for mid-range shots too. Watch him take the defender pretty casually here:

Luka looks like he's in shoot-around. Notice (again) the subtle step-back. I'm less surprised about the step-back than the runners. Most shooters coming into the league have the some kind of step-back game, while very few players have a varied floater/runner game. I'm more awed by his step-back at this point.

With the high-dribble hesitation cross? Pssh. This one's dirty:

That's beyond cooking. That's sautéing. But the best Luka step-back has to the Joe Ingles scorched earth theory. For context, Ingles went slightly dirty earlier in the half:

And then, this happened:

Serious shades of one Wardell Stephen Curry. That's not hyperbole:

I'm telling you, 6'8 Steph with NBA2K 3pt and passing skill ratings flipped—that's my best Luka comp. He has the deceptive, how-did-he-get to his spot (non)athleticism, the shotmaking from anywhere, and the desire to rip your heart out.

What everyone thought he had coming in, the point guard handles at 6'8, the transcendent passing and court sense—I've glossed over that because it was expected. But meeting the expectations of being a passing and ball handling genius is no small feat. Here's a smattering of oops, crosses, and ball-fakes:

Just all ah-dee-dah about it. Have you ever heard of the behind-the-back, hesi-into-a-Smitty, baseline double-clutch layup?

That's what it looks like.

Actually, forget this one, it's against the Knicks.

I don't mean to be effusive. I wouldn't be if Doncic had proven to be only been the elite playmaker we'd heard about with a smattering of three point shooting. His offensive game is just crazy diversified. Watching the tape has been surprising, to say the least. The big problem though, is that the stellar play and statistics is not translating to wins. To Doncic's discredit, he turns it over, a lot. Up to now, I've shown a lot of makes. But the misses sometimes seem to be deflating to his teammates. His game against his idol LeBron and the Lakers showed some of that.

Whether that's a function of this being a team with a lot of new players, missing Dirk's presence and old-man leadership, or either bad or undeveloped team chemistry remains to be seen. But the future looks good, to understate it.

How He Matches Up Against the Warriors

Well, against the actual Warriors, I think it would be tough. But the Warriors are in a weird place right now. KD is out of it. Draymond is feeling the heat, maybe enough to take a game off for injury that he might otherwise play through. Klay is wondering why people are killing his vibe. Even without Draymond, the Warriors have a glut of tall, rangy, athletic wing defender go. Doncic's turnover prone game is what guys like Andre feast on. Luka’s also not quite bulky enough to back down Klay—unlike most guards he's gone against so far.

This one is dicey for the Dubs. As Steve Kerr has noted, The Mavs are hardly a team of sharks ready to attack when they smell blood. But if KD is flat and Klay isn’t hot, maybe this ends up being a snowball-downhill game. Then again, the Mavs are 23rd in defense right now. I also expect Andre and Klay to be up for showing Luka the business. It happened to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the second half of Dray-KD Gate, it happened monstrously to Trae Young—it's highly likely Luka could shoot 3-17 with 8 turnovers. Despite the Luka gush-fest, I'm actually betting on a rough one for him tonight.

Where He'll Be in 5 Years

If they get the right team around him, or the team around him gets better from a flow standpoint, he could challenge for the MVP. LeBron-like stat lines with better shooting splits are entirely in play. Barring injury and with some fine-tuning to his body, he should at least be challenging for 1st-2nd team All-NBA every year.

And...Revisiting The Nickname Pitch

Slo(venian) Motion is solid, upon reflection. I'm guessing he'll always just be Luka though.

Next Up

De'Aaron Fox, G, Sacramento Kings