Did the Jets sell too low in the Teddy Bridgewater trade?

The Jets turned a $500k Bridgewater investment into a third-round pick.

Teddy Bridgewater was never going to be a Jet for long. The one-year, $6 million deal he signed back in March was an opportunity for both sides.

For Bridgewater, it was a chance to rehabilitate his value as an NFL quarterback after a devastating knee injury cast his future into doubt. For New York, it was an insurance policy for a nearly 40-year-old Josh McCown and whatever rookie passer they’d draft back in April. More importantly, the deal also gave them a potential trade chip should the former Pro Bowler return to form during the preseason.

When McCown and No. 3 overall pick Sam Darnold lived up to expectations this preseason, Bridgewater hit the market. On Wednesday, he was shipped back to the NFC, along with a sixth-round pick in a deal with the New Orleans Saints that net the Jets a 2019 third-round selection.

On the surface, everybody wins; New York gets some draft capital to boost a rebuilding roster. New Orleans gets a proven backup and intriguing future option behind an aging Drew Brees. Bridgewater moves from third string with a struggling team to a second-team role with a Super Bowl contender.

But was it the best the Jets could do?

The Jets took a sure thing rather than wait for injuries to create a seller’s market

New York flipped an under-the-radar, one-year free agent deal into what should be a late third-round pick. In other words, Bridgewater will cost the team $500,000 in cap space in exchange for a Day 2 pick. By comparison, it cost the Browns $16 million in cap room (and a preseason of Brock Osweiler appearances) to pilfer the Texans’ second-round pick in 2017. For the Jets, that’s a solid return for a player who wasn’t in the team’s best-laid plans for 2018 or beyond.

And it may have gotten better if the Jets were willing to wait. History has shown proven starters command big prices when NFL teams are thrown into flux by a significant quarterback injury. No one understands this better than Bridgewater.

In 2016, his dislocated knee threw the a wrench in the Vikings’ playoff plans, forcing the team to scramble for a replacement. Rather than rely on journeyman Shaun Hill as its starter, Minnesota paid big to bring Sam Bradford north, sending first- and fourth-round picks to the Eagles for a player with starting experience and a troubling injury history. Bradford was a player who, like Bridgewater, wasn’t a vital cog in his team’s offense but was on a short-term deal — in Bradford’s case a much more expensive two-year, $36 million pact.

The deal worked out for both sides, but the Eagles are primed to reap the long-term benefits. The Vikings’ first-round pick became Derek Barnett, a key piece in the Eagles’ Super Bowl 52 victory as a rookie. The fourth-round pick, Josh Sweat, has explosive potential as a pass rusher but hasn’t played for Philadelphia yet. The trade also cleared the runway for Carson Wentz to become the club’s starting QB; in 2017, he emerged as an MVP frontrunner before a torn ACL curtailed his sophomore season.

We saw QB value spike due to injury again in 2017, though not quite on that scale. New England was able to ship its third-string quarterback to Indianapolis when it became clear Andrew Luck was going to miss extended time. The Patriots received former first-round pick and current Josh McDaniels reclamation project Phillip Dorsett in return. Miami decided to turn to the free agent market instead of making a trade when Ryan Tannehill tore his ACL. For their money — $10 million guaranteed and incentives worth up to another $3 million — the Dolphins got 14 starts from Jay Cutler and the league’s least convincing wildcat receiver.

As grim as it sounds, there’s reason to believe a major quarterback injury will strike once more before the October 30 trade deadline. Last year, six starters suffered injuries that caused them to miss significant time before Week 9 — Luck, Tannehill, Bradford, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, and Carson Palmer. Three of those passers played for teams that made the postseason in 2016; none of them returned to the playoffs in 2017

A similar run would have pushed Bridgewater’s asking price to Bradford-esque numbers. The Jets would have had to simply wait for a playoff contender to get desperate enough to pay it.

But a robust market never developed for Bridgewater

Bridgewater performed well this preseason to help assuage some of the doubts about how he’d perform on his surgically repaired leg. Not only did he complete 73.7 percent of his passes for an efficient 8.3 yards per pass and a 104.7 QB rating, but he also stood up to pressure without allowing his rehabbed knee to get in his way:

That was great for the Jets. The only problem was that the demand for a player like Bridgewater failed to match the level of his performance. This year’s preseason has been mercifully kind to quarterbacks, and it’s unlikely any starters will be taking many hard reps before the season starts. The odds of a passer suffering an injury like Bridgewater or Tannehill did before the 2018 season starts are extremely low.

Other factors sapped Bridgewater’s trade value. Many teams looking for potential franchise quarterbacks found theirs in April. The NFL Draft dumped five new first-round quarterbacks into the league, including the man named the Jets’ Week 1 starter after Bridgewater was traded.

Franchises looking for backups could find them relatively cheaply throughout the offseason. The Packers brought former Browns starter (and 2017 second-round pick) DeShone Kizer to Green Bay in exchange for cornerback Damarious Randall, then shipped Brett Hundley to Seattle for a late-round selection in next year’s draft. Acquiring Kevin Hogan only cost Washington a swap of sixth-round picks. Trevor Siemian (and a Broncos seventh-round pick) came to Minnesota in exchange for a fifth-rounder.

And there will be more movement when the calendar flips to September. Players like Paxton Lynch, Joshua Dobbs, Cardale Jones, and Robert Griffin III could all be casualties of the league’s roster cutdown day. While none of those players may have the value of Bridgewater — not yet a starter, but better than the average backup — their availability almost certainly made it more difficult for teams to justify trading future capital for a backup on a one-year deal.

The trade is a sound, if unexciting, investment for New York

Bridgewater may have commanded a future first-round pick in the right deal from a desperate contender, but a lot of chips would have had to fall in the Jets’ favor to get there. New York bought low on a reclamation project, then watched that stock rise through training camp and the preseason. Bridgewater did everything he could to regain his status, but his value with the Jets ultimately hinged on him playing elsewhere.

In a world where Jimmy Garoppolo was acquired for the cost of a second-round pick, shipping a quarterback signed months earlier on a single-season deal for a third-rounder is great value. The Jets could have gambled and hoped for more — but given their luck lately, it’s understandable why they took a guaranteed return rather that wait on an unpredictable market to swing their way.