Bracketology 2018: The bubble braces for an Atlantic 10 bid thief

10 Mar 2018 23:23

While top-seeded Rhode Island was able to survive its matchup with Saint Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure couldn’t stop Davidson in game two. That means the Wildcats could poach a bid at the very last moment.

Fans of teams featured in this post will want to tune into the Atlantic 10 Tournament final Sunday afternoon (1 p.m. Eastern, CBS) because the winner will determine whether one team keeps its place in the field or drops into the NIT.

Somewhat fittingly, it’s Stephen Curry’s alma mater, the Davidson Wildcats, threatening to destroy some team’s hopes of a spot in Dayton. After handling the St. Bonaventure Bonnies in the second Atlantic 10 semifinal in Washington, D.C. Saturday afternoon, 82-70, Bob McKillop’s squad will face the top-seeded Rhode Island Rams with an automatic bid on the line. The Rams managed to recover from a 30-point defeat at the hands of Saint Joseph’s on Feb. 27th to defeat the Hawks 90-87 in the first game of the day in the Nation’s Capital.

Bubble teams everywhere have good reason to be worried, as the pair split their regular season series, with Davidson winning on its home floor one week ago by a 63-61 score.

At least the teams on this list don’t have to worry about the results in Sunday’s other conference title games, as only the Ivy League and Sun Belt champs will reach the field and tournament locks feature in both the SEC and American Athletic finals.

Now to recap the bubble picture heading into Saturday night, with St. Bonaventure dropping down into the group that just avoids a trip to Dayton.

Last Four Byes: St. Bonaventure, Alabama, USC, UCLA

Had Alabama defeated Kentucky in today’s first SEC Tournament semifinal, it would have escaped this group for good. And the Tide’s loss means the only team from this quartet that has its fate in its own hands is USC, which plays Arizona in the Pac-12 Tournament final tonight (10 p.m. Eastern, FS1). The Trojans would be well-advised to take the auto bid, as I’m not sure a profile that spotlights wins over Middle Tennessee and New Mexico State as its best is going to be good enough.

Last Four In

42. Texas Longhorns

19-14, 8-10 Big 12; RPI: 50; KenPom: 39; “Super Average”: 35; SOS: 19

Thanks to the loaded Big 12 and the top games of the 81st-ranked non-conference schedule, the Longhorns were able to cobble together a 6-11 Group 1 record and 8-14 mark against Groups 1 and 2. By RPI, Texas’ worst loss came against Oklahoma State, but the most damaging to their case might have been a sweep at the hands of Baylor.

While Texas has no top 20 wins, it does have seven top 50 victories. That and a lack of truly bad losses should be enough to put Shaka Smart’s team in the field, even with a 6-10 record in all games away from Austin.

43. Oklahoma Sooners

18-13, 8-10 Big 12; RPI: 48; KenPom: 48; “Super Average”: 40.8; SOS: 25

Since the calendar turned to February, the Sooners have gone 2-8. In the old days, back when the Selection Committee used a “last 10/12” games metric to consider how a team closed its season, you would have to think Lon Kruger’s team was destined for the NIT. But that metric is long gone, and if the emphasis continues to be on a team’s entire body of work, a team with a 6-9 mark in Group 1 games, punctuated by five top 25 wins shouldn’t have much to worry about.

But that awful finish and a 2-9 record in true road games (OU went 3-2 in neutral situations) might push the Committee to leave Trae Young and company out.

44. Arizona State Sun Devils

20-11, 8-10 Pac-12; RPI: 64; KenPom: 46; “Super Average”: 51.3; SOS: 73

Speaking of “awful finishes,” the Sun Devils elevated the concept to an art form by turning a 12-0 start that had folks like me thinking Bobby Hurley’s team could earn a No. 1 seed this weekend. Then they bumbled through the Pac-12 season, winning consecutive games only once — a three-game stretch in early February highlighted by home wins over both USC and UCLA — closing with five losses in their last six. They finished ninth in the conference in a non-vintage year, which would be a disqualifying factor if the Committee looked at league marks.

Those struggles and a 4-6 record in true road games are great reasons to leave ASU out, but a 5-0 record in Group 1 and 2 non-conference games, highlighted by a neutral-court win over Xavier and win at Kansas, might give the Sun Devils life. Even though its non-conference schedule ranks 105th, Arizona State took advantage of the chances it got in November and December, something many of these other teams failed to do.

45. Syracuse Orange

20-13, 8-10 ACC; RPI: 44; KenPom: 54; “Super Average”: 49.2; SOS: 17

Unlike the two teams immediately above them, the Orange actually took care of business late in the season, sort of. While Syracuse has gone just 5-6 since February’s arrival, three of those victories rank among their best — those over Miami and bubble rival Louisville on the road and a late one over Clemson at the Carrier Dome. At 4-8 against Group 1 and 7-11 against Groups 1 and 2, Jim Boeheim’s team is on extremely thin ice, and a 4-6 record in true road games (featuring losses to Boston College and, worse, sub-150 squads Wake Forest, which Syracuse did defeat twice, and Georgia Tech) might cause it to break.

First Four Out

69. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

23-7, 16-2 C-USA; RPI: 34; KenPom: 52; “Super Average”: 49.3; SOS: 89

70. St Marys-CA Gaels

28-5, 16-2 WCC; RPI: 41; KenPom: 28; “Super Average”: 40.5; SOS: 168

I’m going to cover the Blue Raiders and Gaels together because they share a common problem — namely, the number of at-large bids awarded to teams from outside of the power conferences has been steadily shrinking, particularly in the past two years. In the early seasons of the First Four era, which started in 2011, mid-majors managed to combine for double-digit at-large bid totals twice, in 2012 and 2013. That number has plunged in the intervening years, largely due to conference realignment (with the Atlantic 10 and CAA hit particularly hard). In 2015, six at-large bids went to mid-majors, but the 2016 and 2017 tournaments saw that many mid-major at-large selections total.

If you look at the three most recent NITs, you’ll notice that seven of the 12 No. 1 seeds, awarded to the first four teams left out of the NCAAs, have gone to mid-major squads. Add that information to the profile concerns I wrote about on Friday morning when I thought both the Blue Raiders and Gaels had a shot at sneaking in, and you’ll understand why my enthusiasm has cooled.

71. Louisville Cardinals

20-13, 9-9 ACC; RPI: 39; KenPom: 33; “Super Average”: 36.8; SOS: 14

Why have I placed the Cardinals behind Syracuse in the pecking order, despite Louisville’s superior RPI and their lack of bad losses? Well, a 3-10 record in Group 1 games and 5-13 combined mark against Groups 1 and 2 are both worse than the Orange’s (4-8 and 7-11, respectively). Making matters worse, Syracuse has three top 30 wins, while Louisville doesn’t have a single top 50 victory. Plus, there’s the little matter of the Orange’s head-to-head victory, which occurred in Louisville.

In other words, I’m not sure that a lack of bad losses is going to be enough for David Padgett’s squad to get in.

72. Marquette Golden Eagles

19-13, 9-9 Big East; RPI: 58; KenPom: 53; “Super Average”: 50.3; SOS: 26

Similarly, I doubt season sweeps of Seton Hall and Creighton are going to be enough for the Golden Eagles, who went 8-11 against Groups 1 and 2, but only 3-8 in Group 1 contests. Still, a .500 record in true road games and 8-7 mark in all games played away from Milwaukee is a positive differentiating factor for Marquette.

Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Baylor, Nebraska

I’ll have one final, expanded bubble update on Sunday morning.