NFL picks against the spread 2017, Week 3: Underdog picks for the adventurous gambler

Can the Texans really beat a 14-point spread against the Patriots? Maybe. Plus, upset watches in Chicago and Green Bay this week.

It’s the third week of the season. One more week, and we’ll be at the quarter pole.

You’re expecting me to make a “gee, doesn’t time fly” type comment, and while I am old and do sometimes find myself marveling at how quickly things tend to move along, that wasn’t my intention. I bring that up because we’re starting to get a big enough sample size to know what to make of teams from week to week.

Not that that makes betting any easier, not for some of us anyway.

What I’m going to do this week is try to group the games based on how confident I am in my picks. Yes, I was quite confident that the Browns could cover an 8-point spread against the Ravens last week. They didn’t. But the Bills did manage to cover a 7-point spread against the Panthers, so I’m not totally out my mind.

On with the picks. Reminder, I use OddsShark for my betting info here. Home teams are in all caps.

Best bets for Week 3

JAGUARS (+3) over Ravens

The league is subjecting us to another London game with a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff. There’s no reason to get up early to watch this one. You can tune in for the fourth quarter, and I think you’ll get the essence of it.

So why am I picking the Jaguars here? The Ravens are 0-4 against the spread in their last four against the Jags. That’s a powerful precedent.

And despite Jacksonville’s insistence on starting Blake Bortles for some reason, they do lean most heavily on running back Leonard Fournette. It’s helpful for the Jags then that the Ravens won’t have defensive tackle Brandon Williams this week.

PACKERS (-7.5) over Bengals

Aaron Rodgers has never beaten the Bengals, which is mostly a function of how NFL scheduling works. He’s probably going to break that barrier this week, but just in case the last two weeks of Bengals shittiness has maybe inspired Marvin Lewis’ team to play a little better, it’s not a bad idea to hedge a little and maybe throw a fiver on Cincy.

Raiders (-3) over WASHINGTON

Cowboys (-3) over CARDINALS

Dolphins (-6) over JETS

EAGLES (-6) over Giants

Broncos (-3) over BILLS

Buccaneers (-1.5) over VIKINGS

Maybe one of the games above could result in an upset, but I’m just not counting on it.

A few difficult decisions

Falcons (-3) over LIONS

Atlanta should be the obvious pick here. But the Lions are also a pretty convincing 2-0. The only issue with Detroit is that they haven’t exactly played the stiffest competition. I suspect we’ll know a lot more about the Lions by the end of this game

PANTHERS (-5.5) over Saints

The Saints’ defense is so bad that Cam Newton and the Panthers’ offense are basically having a glorified seven-on-seven practice this week. Or that’s the way it should be. But the Panthers haven’t really looked all that great to start the season. Greg Olsen is out. Cam Newton hasn’t been very accurate, and he’s not exactly healthy this week.

But it’s just so hard to pick against anyone playing the Saints’ defense.

Browns (-1.5) over COLTS

The Browns should win. Hell, they’ve become a model for what the Colts’ best case scenario in two years might be. It’s that bad for Indianapolis. But that’s a narrow spread and it’s just so hard to know what you’re going to get week to week from these kind of teams.

TITANS (-2.5) over Seahawks

The Seahawks have too much talent to be 1-3, but they also have THAT offensive line.

Underdog picks for the adventurous gambler

BEARS (+7) over Steelers

The Steelers’ offense still hasn’t hit its stride. They probably will this week because I’m picking the Bears to cover this spread.

My pick is based on two things. First, the Steelers have a tendency to trip all over themselves in one easily winnable road game from time to time.

Second, the Bears’ defense is not getting enough credit. They held the Falcons to 23 points in Chicago to start the season, and the Bears lost that one 23-17. They wound up getting blown out by the Bucs last week when Mike Glennon threw up all over himself with a parade of turnovers. If he can avoid that this week, the Bears can keep it within a touchdown.

CHARGERS (+3) over Chiefs

I feel like fate is conspiring against the Chargers now. They’re in a city where they don’t belong and they’ve lost two games because of missed field goals. Something’s gotta give, right? Probably not, but you don’t make money just betting on the favorites.

Texans (+14) over PATRIOTS

I know what you’re thinking. “Are you high?” No, not right now. Hear me out.

We still haven’t seen Houston’s vaunted defensive line play up to its potential. And remember how tough they made it for the Patriots in the playoffs last year?

If they really get after Tom Brady this week and the Patriots’ defense continues to look as weak as they have putting pressure on opposing passers ... sure, a lot of things have to go right, but if they do, the Texans can beat a 14-point spread.