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THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF ELIMINATOR: Tracking the teams that are definitely out of the running, week by week

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Let’s bring back a weekly thing we used to do here at SB Nation years ago during the BCS era, and spin it toward the College Football Playoff.

The FBS level of college football has 128 postseason-eligible teams in 2017. Four will make the College Football Playoff. Most of those other 124 had no realistic shot to begin with, whether due to being bad teams or to having schedules that are almost certain to be filled with bad teams.

However, let’s look at the Playoff a different way. Let’s pretend things really did start on equal footing and that any team that at least plays one Power 5 opponent has a remote shot at stealing a Playoff bid.

Throughout the season, the following will be updated after each weekend. In the BCS era, we had fun with The BCS Eliminator, so I’m switching it up slightly, to account for the four-team field. More on that below.

Rules:

  • No Power 5 team is technically out of the running until it suffers its second loss (unless that first loss was something drastic, like to an FCS team).
  • One loss eliminates any mid-major. Non-powers have zero margin for error, and many lack the schedule strength to make it even if they do go undefeated.

Bulletins:

  • As 2016 Penn State showed, certain two-loss Power 5s can still make it. PSU ranked No. 5 and could’ve been No. 4, if Ohio State had lost another game.
  • For now, I’m not considering any team who faces at least one Power 5 opponent to have been eliminated by a weak schedule. Every FBS team plays at least one Power 5 team and/or Notre Dame.
  • But this means there will be eliminations based on things outside a team’s control. As soon as Illinois clinches a bad record (this will be any day now), USF’s schedule is gonna look real weak, for example.
  • This ^ is similar to how the Playoff committee approaches schedule strength. A schedule isn’t weak until the teams you’ve played have played poorly against other teams in actual games. A schedule isn’t strong until the opposite happens, nor do you get any credit for teams you’ve yet to play, as we learned when 2014 Baylor jumped TCU by beating a team TCU had already beaten.
  • As the committee showed in 2016, not even being eliminated from your conference championship can eliminate you from the Playoff, provided you have a chance at 11-1.
  • I know your rival has lost a game. Ohio State won the Playoff after losing to a team that would finish the regular season 6-6. Therefore, until your rival loses some more and/or sees that loss become sufficiently embarrassing, you’re just going to have to wait to see your rival’s name here.
  • If something world-breakingly astounding happens (Colorado State starts 1-1, shuts out Alabama, and finishes 12-1!!!), this list might bring a team back from the dead. Otherwise, we’re dealing in the realm of the possible.

Achievements:

  • Ole Miss was the first Power 5 team eliminated, thanks to self-sanctions meant to appease the NCAA.
  • Baylor was the first Power 5 team to be eliminated by a loss on the field.
  • Ole Miss was the first team to eliminate two teams: Ole Miss and South Alabama.

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