Trade Profile: Pablo López, SP

Pablo López, SP

Position: SP  B/T: L/R

Age: 29 (3/7/1996)

2025 Traditional Stats: 14 G, 75.2 IP, 2.74 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 72 SO, 20 BB

2025 Advanced Stats: 156 ERA+, 23.4 K%, 6.4 BB%, 4.02 xERA, 3.19 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, 1.8 fWAR, 2.1 bWAR

The 2025 season for Pablo López was a mixed bag. On the plus side, he posted a 2.74 ERA over 14 starts. On the downside, he dealt with a shoulder issue that sidelined him for nearly three months, and then, toward season’s end, suffered a freak forearm strain while trying to make a play on a ground ball. The Twins emphasized that the injury was not serious and that the strain was not near the elbow, which is a good sign that his UCL is healthy.

López was acquired by the Twins in a trade that sent Luis Arráez to the Miami Marlins ahead of the 2023 season. He has two years and $43 million remaining on his four-year, $73 million extension.

Since 2021, López has the 16th-highest fWAR among starting pitchers (tied with Sandy Alcantara) and sits just ahead of other potential trade candidates like Freddy Peralta (15.0 vs. 14.8). He has averaged over a strikeout per inning (9.69 per 9). Among MLB starters over that same span, his 3.61 ERA ranks No. 19, ahead of Joe Ryan and Alcantara. His 3.52 xERA places him 12th, his 3.53 SIERA is 13th, and his K–BB% is 15th overall. In short, he has consistently ranked among the top 15 starters in MLB over the past five years, making him a very intriguing trade candidate.

2025 Season Context

Coming into 2025, López had made 32 starts each year from 2022 to 2024. However, in 2025, he managed only 14 outings, his fewest in a non–COVID season since his rookie year in 2018. When he was on the mound, though, he was effective: he posted a career-low WHIP (1.11), surrendered the lowest HR/9 of his career (0.7), and recorded a career-best 156 ERA+. Unfortunately, a shoulder strain in June cost him nearly three months. Upon his return, he pitched well, compiling a 2.80 ERA while striking out almost a batter per inning.

The second injury, a forearm strain caused while fielding as previously mentioned, was more of a freak accident than a pitching-related injury. It was not serious, and Twins officials indicated that if the team had still been in playoff contention, López likely would have pitched in the postseason.

Under the Hood

There are two main areas to focus on when attempting to predict future performance for pitchers. The first is a newer addition to the public, that being Stuff+, Location+ and Pitching+. Introduced by FanGraphs a couple of seasons ago, Stuff+ looks at the physical characteristics of a pitch and factors release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate (among others).

Location+ is a count and pitch type-adjusted judge of a pitcher’s ability to put pitches in the right place. No velocity, movement, or any other physical characteristics are included in the statistic.  For example, a breaking ball should go to different parts of the strike zone in 2-0 and 1-2 counts, and Location+ captures that phenomenon.

Pitching+ is not just a weighted average of Stuff+ and Location+ across a pitcher’s arsenal. Rather, it is a third model that uses the physical characteristics, location, and count of each pitch to try to judge the overall quality of the pitcher’s process. These three models paint a broader picture of how effective a pitchers pitches are and compares them to the rest of the league. Where before we would look to velocity and strikeout rates when looking at possible regression, these tools help quantify effectiveness more precisely than before. 

For Lopez, his Stuff+ numbers are consistently in the mid 90’s.  In 2025 specifically, none of his metrics were down except for his Stuff+. It is unclear what if any the shoulder injury he suffered impacted his ability to throw each pitch with the conviction he normally uses, but the slight dip (97 in ’23 and 98 in ’24) to 93, is something to monitor.  There are also occasional issues with pitch classification, and despite surrendering an xSLG of .299 against his sweeper, the pitch graded out as an 86 Stuff+, potentially because the sweeper Lopez throws doesn’t have the traditional vertical drop a slider has and his Stuff+ grade could be altered if the pitch was classified as a sweeper rather than a slider. 

Digging a little deeper, from 2023-2025, López had a 96 Stuff+ score, which is slightly below the league average of 100. Instead, he gets outs with his elite location. López’s Location+ was the best in baseball the last three seasons (113). His Pitching+ was also 15th in MLB over the last three seasons. López’s Location+ peers are generally softer throwers (Shota Imanaga, Miles Mikolas, Zack Littell, Zach Eflin) however, the two pitchers directly behind Lopez are Paul Skenes and George Kirby, two guys who throw really hard and have elite control. While López isn’t a flame thrower like Skenes, his combination of average “stuff” with an elite ability to make his pitch when needed is his formula for success.

The second area to look at for predicting pitcher performance is expected numbers. Although López’s overall underlying metrics remain strong, 2025 revealed a few small signs of regression. His xERA jumped to 4.02 (up from 3.67 in 2024), and his ground ball rate dropped from 44% in 2024 to 38.6% in 2025. His whiff rate and strikeout rate dipped slightly (from 27% to 25.9% and from 25.6% to 23.4%, respectively), and his walk percentage rose from 5.4% to 6.3%. These are small changes and could be partly explained by the small sample size, but if a team like the Mets is evaluating him for the front-end of their rotation, these dips merit consideration before making a trade.

Package

What makes López especially appealing to the Mets is both his track record and the relatively short commitment left on his contract. The Mets’ front office, led by president of baseball operations David Stearns, has shown a reluctance to commit long-term to pitchers entering their 30s. Acquiring López (entering his age 30 season) with just two years remaining on his deal could strike the balance between youth, upside and manageable risk. 

Given López’s injury-plagued 2025 and the money owed, a likely trade package wouldn’t be as costly as the one required for, say, Tarik Skubal, Peralta or Ryan. Assuming the Mets take on the full contract, a reasonable return might be a package including a promising arm such as Jack Wenninger or Jonathan Santucci, plus a higher-ceiling position-player such as Jacob Reimer and another solid piece or two.

In contrast, acquiring Peralta or Ryan would likely require surrendering top-tier prospects such as Jett Williams, Jonah Tong or Brandon Sproat, assets that the Mets prefer to keep.

Recommendation

López is a compelling trade target worth serious consideration. While he may not carry the same name recognition as Peralta, his metrics (WAR, ERA, K–BB%, FIP, SIERRA) indicate he has consistently been among the top 15 starting pitchers in MLB over the past five seasons. Given the short contract commitment and relative affordability compared to the top free agent starters, López represents a strong opportunity to raise the floor for the Mets’ rotation in 2026, with a trade package that may cost prospects, but likely not as many as other comparable pitchers.

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