Free Agent Profile: Walker Buehler, SP

Walker Buehler, SP

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 30 (08/03/1995)
2025 Traditional Stats: 10-7, 4.93 ERA, 1.516 WHIP, 126 IP, 92 SO, 61 BB, 24 GS (26 G)
2025 Advanced Stats: 89 ERA+, 16.3% K%, 10.8% BB%, 5.51 xERA, 5.66 FIP, 5.09 xFIP, -0.3 fWAR

Rundown

Coming off throwing the final pitch in the 2024 World Series, there was optimism for a bounce-back season from Walker Buehler in 2025. This led to the Red Sox signing him to a one-year, $21.05 million contract.

Unfortunately, the season did not turn out as the Red Sox had hoped, with Buehler pitching just 112.1 innings to a 5.45 ERA and 1.558 WHIP before eventually being released by Boston on August 29. He signed a minor league deal with the Phillies and pitched 13.2 innings to a 0.66 ERA and 1.171 WHIP.

While the results were better in Philadelphia, under the hood, everything looked largely the same, regardless of a smalltweak to his fastball and cutter that led to more chase, but not much more swing and miss. He landed in the bottom percentiles in baseball in xERA (sixth percentile), strikeout percentage (ninth percentile) and xBA (10th percentile).

Buehler’s 2025 struggles stemmed from poor command with largely average stuff. It truly is that simple. None of the spin rates on his pitches were above average (his slider averaged 2525 rpm, while averaging 2942 rpm in 2020. His fastball velocity (93.9 mph) was below league average. His movement profiles overall were largely average. Pitchers can get away with this when they have plus command and control, but Buehler did not have that in 2025. FanGraphs logged his Location+ at 15% below average at 85. He also struggled heavily against left-handed hitters – a former strength of his – with them hitting to a .830 OPS against him in 2025.

Right now, the only potential reason for optimism is that he is another year removed from his second Tommy Johnsurgery. Buehler did have setbacks in 2024, both in his initial return and during the season. We saw Robbie Ray struggle across 2024 in his Tommy John return before his 2025 bounce back. Zack Wheeler struggled mightily in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, pitchers like Noah Syndergaard never truly bounced back from Tommy John surgery.

Contract

MLB Trade Rumors did not make a contract projection for Walker Buehler, but Spotrac lists his market value at one-year, $10 million. There are teams that will likely be willing to take a chance on him bouncing back with another season at that price.

Recommendation: Stay Away

Outside of a minor league deal, Walker Buehler likely does not make sense for the Mets in 2026. Instead, they need to focus on adding front-end starters rather than taking chances on reclamation projects at this stage in franchise history.

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