Free Agent Profile: Michael Soroka, SP/RP

Michael Soroka, SP/RP

Position: SP/RP B/T: R/R

Age: 28 (8/4/1997)

2025 Traditional Stats: 22 G, 89.2 IP, 4.52 ERA, 1.126 WHIP, 95 SO, 29 BB

2025 Advanced Stats: 91 ERA+, 25.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 3.42 xERA, 4.23 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, 1.1 fWAR/0.6 bWAR

Rundown

Michael Soroka had an up-and-down 2025. He signed with the Nationals on a one-year, $9 million deal with the hopes that another year removed from his injuries would help him regain the success he had early on in his career. Soroka made his debut for the Atlanta Braves in 2018 before earning an All-Star nod in 2019 and also finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year voting. That season, he posted 6 bWAR and an ERA+ of 171. Soroka’s 2019 was so good, and achieved at such a young age, that he became one of four pitchers in the divisional-era to have a 6-bWAR campaign in their age 21 season or younger alongside Vida Blue, Dwight Gooden and Mark Fidrych. Following that tremendous season, Soroka’s promising career was derailed by multiple Achilles tears, the first of which occurred against the Mets during the 2020 season. 

After a couple of years of rehabbing, Soroka was traded to the Chicago White Sox in November 2023 in a multi-player deal that sent Aaron Bummer, among others, to Atlanta. In 2024, Soroka found a new role and became a long man for the White Sox. He threw 79 innings and went from a ground-ball pitcher to a guy who struck out more than a batter per inning (9.5 K/9, up from 7.3 in 2019).

While his 2024 was a mixed bag, Soroka made it through the season healthy and was seen as a project an analytics-heavy organization would take a flyer on. He signed with the Nationals, likely because they guaranteed him a rotation spot, and pitched once again to mixed results. However, his underlying metrics were as good, if not better, than they were in 2019. Finishing with a 3.42 xERA, Soroka made it through the 2025 season mostly healthy and retained the velocity on his fastball (93.5 average mph in 2025 and 93.6 in 2025) while also keeping elite spin on his out pitch, which is his slurve (2918 RPM- 2500 is league average).

When projecting Soroka’s free agency, he has a number of factors that should help his candidacy. The first is his age: he’s entering his age-28 season. Soroka is the second-youngest free agent pitcher with MLB experience. Only Dustin May is younger. The second is that Soroka just completed two relatively healthy seasons in a row and retained his spin and velocity metrics in September despite throwing more innings than he did in 2024.

The third factor for Soroka is that he has really strong underlying metrics on his secondary pitches that could improve his results in 2026 and beyond. In 2025, his slurve had a .220 opponent xSLG and his changeup had a .264 opponent xSLG. In contrast, his fastball had a .470 xSLG. Perhaps with higher usage of his changeup (only 10% in 2025) and slurve (34.8%), Soroka can have better results moving forward.

Contract

A contract prediction for Soroka is complicated. He is still young but hasn’t thrown 100 innings since 2019. Building up to be a starter was not the best approach for him in 2025, but it is possible a team will look at his underlying metrics and believe he can produce results closer to them than his surface results in 2025. Therefore, I’d be willing to give a multi-year contract at around $8 million per year. Spotrac estimates that Soroka’s market value is $3.6 million; however, given his strong advanced stats and age, I would bet Soroka makes more than that.

Recommendation: Try to Sign

I would be highly interested in signing Soroka. The Mets are likely looking for top-end starting pitchers and depth pieces. Soroka fits into the latter category. Having a strong swing-man who can get high-leverage outs as well as make a spot start here and there is more valuable than ever in order to get through the 162-game marathon. Soroka’s combination of an above-average ground-ball rate (61st percentile) as well as his improved walk rate (12.7 % in 2024 and 7.7 % in 2025), combined with elite swing-and-miss stuff (38.4% put-away rate and the fifth-lowest xBA against his slurve), makes him a valuable depth piece that could help any contending team.

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