The Mariners are standing still

Second half of season opens with division in reach

The Mariners have a great opportunity.

The season began with a long stretch of winning. Then there was a long stretch of losing. Then there was a shorter stretch of winning. Then there were sweeps in New York and Detroit. The Mariners were many things in the first half of 2025, but they were mostly in the middle.

How they’ve gotten here is new. The Mariners’ offense has carried them most of the season. They rank fifth in MLB with a 115 wRC+ and sixth with 17.2 fWAR. A similar performance in the second half would make this the best group of position players in Jerry Dipoto’s tenure. Cal Raleigh has been incredible, of course, and Randy Arozarena, J.P. Crawford, and Julio Rodríguez have each chipped in strong production of their own. It’s one of the league’s best cores.

The rest of the offense has been a mix. The Mariners continue to platoon most of their 5-through-9 batters, as they often have, but this year’s group has been one-dimensional: they rank in the bottom 10 in both fielding and baserunning. Their “flexibility” appears suffocating at times, and it’s forced them to pinch hit more than any other team. That was especially noticeable when Luke Raley’s multi-week absence left them without a first baseman and also too many.

Still, they’ve taken some of the most platoon-favorable at-bats in MLB, with nearly two-thirds of their plate appearances coming against pitchers of the opposite handedness. Collectively, they work deep in counts, make good contact, and strikeout out at a reasonable rate. The Mariners’ 5-through-9 batters have a 102 wRC+ — third best in MLB.

It’s the pitching — the pitching! — that’s kept these Mariners from greatness. The projections liked the Mariners’ staff before the year, though they didn’t think the rotation was “the best in history” as some had claimed, nor were they thrilled about the bullpen. Even that looks too optimistic now.

The rotation has struggled — first with injury, then with length, and now with a pesky fifth spot they haven’t been able to fill. The bullpen has been top-heavy, with some of the best and worst relievers in the league. They haven’t had the depth to smooth over short outings or extra innings or rain delays. The group has shown signs of life over the past month, especially with George Kirby pitching like a top-20 starter again, but the whole apparatus still hasn’t come together. If the pitching staff had hit its projections in the first half, the Mariners would be top three in fWAR and a bit ahead of the Astros. But they didn’t, so they’re stuck in the middle, needing to pick up the pace.

The 2025 Mariners remain within striking distance. The Astros five-game lead was built in a few weeks where they went 11-0 in one-run games. Broader estimates suggest the difference in “true talent” is much closer — even favoring the Mariners in some models. Both teams are projected as equals, just as they were in March, and the gap between them is smaller than the number of head-to-head matchups remaining. The Mariners could also gain ground at the trade deadline: fill the rotation, bridge the bullpen, skip the rental bats but find one for the outlook. That’s to say, if their long-term strategy is to stalk opportunities from afar, this is one to pounce on. The AL West is worth playing for.

That’s where things stand for the Mariners as they open the second half on Friday. Their lineup is among the best in the league. The presumed strength of the roster, the pitching, ranks near the bottom. The trade deadline is in two weeks, and they’re not far behind. The Mariners are well positioned for a variety of outcomes the rest of the way — some bad and most familiar. One of them is great.