David Peterson Is Outpitching the Percentiles

In November 2023, David Peterson underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left hip. The procedure, which was expected to sideline him for the first couple of months of the 2024 season, was a disappointing turn in what had already been a lost year for both Peterson and the Mets.

The surgery came on the heels of a frustrating 2023 campaign that saw Peterson demoted to Triple-A Syracuse in May after posting an 8.08 ERA to start the season. In July, he spent most of the month working out of the bullpen before rejoining the rotation by season’s end. He ultimately finished with a 5.03 ERA over 111 innings in 27 appearances (21 starts). While a 4.34 FIP and 10.4 K/9 offered glimmers of hope, Peterson’s overall track record — including a 4.51 ERA and 4.23 FIP across 333 career innings — raised questions about his long-term role in the Mets’ rotation despite his pedigree as a former first-round pick.

Peterson returned to the mound on May 29, 2024, tossing five innings of two-run ball in what ended as a 10–3 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. While the game is best remembered as the low point of the Mets’ season—when reliever Jorge López infamously threw his glove into the stands—it quietly marked a turning point for Peterson. From that start on, he never looked back. The Mets went 15–5 in his remaining 20 outings, and Peterson finished the regular season with a stellar 2.90 ERA and 133 ERA+ (33% better than league average) across 121 innings.

Peterson carried that momentum into October, excelling in multiple roles. He earned a save in the Mets’ Game 3 win over the Milwaukee Brewers to clinch the Wild Card round, picked up the win in Game 4 of the NLDS against the Philadelphia Phillies to send New York to the NLCS, and started Game 5 of that series against the Dodgers—a victory that forced a decisive Game 6 in Los Angeles.

In 2025, Peterson hasn’t missed a beat. His 3.06 ERA and 3.37 FIP over 109 innings (18 starts) have helped stabilize a Mets rotation ravaged by injuries since the spring. He’s not just eating innings—he’s been effective while doing it, recording outs in the sixth inning or later in six separate starts. For context, the rest of the Mets pitching staff has combined to do that just four times. That reliability and performance earned Peterson the first All-Star selection of his career, named as a replacement for the San Francisco Giants’ Robbie Ray.

All told, since returning from labrum surgery, Peterson has posted a 2.97 ERA (129 ERA+) over 39 starts and 230 innings—a dramatic shift from his pre-injury performance. So, what’s changed? That’s the tricky part. Peterson isn’t exactly an analytical darling. According to Baseball Savant, he grades out poorly in several advanced metrics. He doesn’t throw hard (13th percentile in fastball velocity) and is still prone to hard contact, ranking in the 16th percentile in hard hit rate and 19th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. He’s also not overpowering hitters: his chase rate (48th percentile), whiff rate (25th) and strikeout rate (38th) all fall below league average.

So how is Peterson thriving despite his lack of velocity, limited swing-and-miss ability and struggles with hard contact? Part of the answer lies in how well he maximizes the tools he does have. At 6-foot-6, Peterson generates elite extension—releasing the ball 7.2 feet in front of the rubber, which ranks in the 95th percentile league-wide. That extension creates added deception, helping his pitches play up despite below-average velocity.

More importantly, Peterson has mastered the art of limiting damage by keeping the ball on the ground. A staggering 56.6% of contact against him has come on groundballs, placing him in the top 6% of MLB. Hard contact is much easier to survive when it’s hit into the dirt—especially with Francisco Lindor (94th percentile in Outs Above Average) and Brett Baty (85th percentile) anchoring the infield behind him.

From an arsenal standpoint, Peterson has made smart adjustments to optimize his effectiveness based on batter handedness. Since 2023, vs. right-handed hitters, he’s increased his sinker usage from 22.7% to 26% while dialing back his four-seam fastball from 28.2% to 25.5%, making the sinker his primary pitch. He’s also reduced his reliance on the changeup (23.4% to 18.1%) in favor of more curveballs (9.5% to 13.8%). That shift has paid off—right-handed hitters have batted just .216 against his curveball since 2023, compared to .262 against the changeup.

Against lefties, Peterson has leaned into a two-pitch approach, relying heavily on his sinker and slider. Sinker usage in left-on-left matchups has jumped from 32.5% in 2023 to 41.2% this year, while slider usage has also climbed—from 31.2% to 37.1%. In turn, he’s nearly abandoned the four-seamer against lefties, cutting its usage from 25.2% to just 13.3%.

Peterson has excelled at maximizing the value of his pitch mix. According to Statcast’s Run Value—a metric that quantifies the impact of a pitch based on game context—his sinker ranks as the No. 14-best in baseball with a run value of +6. His slider (+4, No. 21) and changeup (+3, No. 16) have also been highly effective. While his curveball hasn’t been thrown often enough to qualify, it has been a useful complementary piece. The only pitch with a negative run value is his four-seamer (-6), ranking No. 183 out of 202 qualified pitchers—but with its usage down significantly, it hasn’t been a major liability.

David Peterson’s ascent hasn’t followed the traditional blueprint of a modern pitching breakout. He doesn’t overpower hitters or miss a ton of bats while his underlying metrics don’t jump off the page. But through smart adjustments, elite extension and a refined pitch mix tailored to handedness, he’s carved out a path to sustained success. Since returning from hip surgery, Peterson has been one of the most reliable arms in the Mets’ rotation, and now, an All-Star. He may not fit the mold of an analytical darling, but results like his are impossible to ignore.

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