Mets 2022 ATC Player Projections

The 2022 Major League Baseball season is now just two plus months until the currently scheduled opening day. Unfortunately, the player lockout puts the timely start of the season in jeopardy. As the two sides are currently negotiating at the bargaining table, I have optimism that they will cement a new collective bargaining agreement in the near future.

Just prior to the December 2^nd lockout date, the New York Mets were busy making offseason moves. Within a short period of time, the Queen’s ballclub signed a number of free agents including Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. Players departing the franchise include Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Aaron Loup. We also expect outfielder Michael Conforto to sign with another major league team once the lockout ends.

Uncertain season or not, over at FanGraphs, I have been busy fine tuning the ATC Projections model for 2022.

I am the creator of the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projection system, which has appeared on FanGraphs since 2017. ATC is a “smart” aggregation model of other projection systems. The methodology behind ATC is similar to what Nate Silver does with his presidential forecasting at www.fivethirtyeight.com and you can read more about it here.

According to FantasyPros, ATC was the most accurate baseball projection system in 2019 and in 2020. In 2019, FantasyPros named me as the No. 1 most accurate fantasy baseball expert.

The ATC Projections, which are published every year during the third week of January – is now live for the upcoming 2022 season. Full projections are available on FanGraphs.

Today, I am happy to share with you and review model results for our New York Mets.

2022 Hitters

Here are the current 2022 ATC Projections for New York Mets hitters, ranked by projected WAR:

Player Name	AB	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
Francisco Lindor	567	144	26	90	82	14	.254	.333	.453	.786	.336	111	3.9
Pete Alonso	565	146	40	91	106	2	.259	.346	.524	.870	.367	132	3.3
Starling Marte	544	151	17	92	66	39	.277	.341	.431	.772	.334	110	2.9
Brandon Nimmo	441	116	14	73	50	7	.263	.380	.430	.810	.356	124	2.9
Jeff McNeil	446	124	12	59	55	3	.277	.343	.420	.763	.331	108	1.8
Mark Canha	468	111	17	74	61	9	.238	.352	.407	.760	.334	110	1.8
Eduardo Escobar	537	131	23	71	79	2	.243	.303	.433	.736	.314	97	1.7
James McCann	373	88	13	44	47	2	.237	.299	.387	.686	.298	86	1.5
J.D. Davis	253	63	9	35	34	1	.248	.336	.412	.748	.326	105	0.7
Dominic Smith	337	87	14	43	50	1	.258	.321	.440	.761	.326	105	0.5
Robinson Cano	292	76	10	36	40	1	.259	.312	.420	.733	.313	96	0.3
Luis Guillorme	121	30	1	15	12	1	.252	.339	.330	.669	.300	88	0.3
Chance Sisco	65	14	2	8	7	0	.208	.304	.342	.646	.288	80	0.2
Tomas Nido	187	42	5	19	21	1	.223	.267	.351	.618	.268	66	0.2
Patrick Mazeika	51	11	2	6	6	0	.224	.283	.363	.647	.281	75	0.2
Khalil Lee	59	13	2	8	6	2	.219	.326	.348	.673	.302	89	0.1

 

ATC projects Pete Alonso to lead the Mets in wOBA, wRC+, HRs, RBI, OPS and slugging percentage. Only Fernando Tatis Jr. and Valdimir Guerrero Jr. are projected by ATC for more home runs in 2022. Clearly, much of the Mets’ offensive success in 2022 hinges upon the Polar Bear.

Leading the team in projected Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is none other than 2^nd year Met, Francisco Lindor. The shortstop’s defense and run production skills push him above Alonso as the most all-around player on the 2022 squad. Unfortunately, the team-leading 3.9 WAR projection is only the 34^th highest projected figure for major league hitters. The Mets will have to rely on a deeper lineup than most to be competitive in the coming season.

According to the ATC projections, Starling Marte will have the highest batting average of all 2022 Mets at .277, with Jeff McNeil a few thousandths of a point behind. The Mets will be counting on a rebound from the flying squirrel and the newly acquired Marte for their hit tools in the coming season. In addition, the Mets’ OBP projected leader Brandon Nimmo (.380) will be depended upon to get on base all season long. Statistically, Nimmo should be the team’s leadoff hitter.

Rounding out the 1+ WAR players on the team are recently signed Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar, as well as catcher James McCann. The Mets will be looking for repeat season from the free agent signings, and a bounce back season for McCann.

As a strong possibility in the new collective bargaining agreement, the National League may add in the designated hitter as a permanent fixture. This would increase the values of Dominic Smith and Robinson Cano, who are currently not projected to be starters.

As a team, the Mets are not a major threat to steal bases. Aside from Marte’s projected 39 stolen bases (2^nd highest projected players in the majors according to ATC) and Lindor’s 14 – no one is projected to swipe at least double digit bags.

You can find the full 2021 ATC projections for hitters on the FanGraphs website under the projections section, or by clicking here.

2022 Pitchers

Here are the current 2022 ATC Projections for New York Mets pitchers, ranked by projected WAR:

Player Name	G	IP	W	SV	HLD	SO	HR	ERA	WHIP	WAR
Jacob deGrom	25	149	11	0	0	216	15	2.51	0.94	5.4
Max Scherzer	29	177	13	0	0	225	25	3.24	1.05	4.0
Tylor Megill	21	113	7	0	0	119	18	4.32	1.27	1.4
Carlos Carrasco	24	131	7	0	0	132	21	4.21	1.26	1.3
Edwin Diaz	65	66	4	31	1	95	8	3.34	1.11	1.1
David Peterson	18	87	5	0	0	82	11	4.17	1.35	0.9
Taijuan Walker	28	152	8	0	0	137	25	4.44	1.31	0.6
Seth Lugo	57	63	4	2	16	70	9	3.84	1.22	0.5
Trevor May	64	64	4	2	20	79	9	3.73	1.23	0.4
Trevor Williams	44	70	3	0	3	62	11	4.43	1.31	0.3
Miguel Castro	58	60	3	1	12	64	7	3.87	1.39	0.2
Drew Smith	52	54	3	0	7	52	8	4.22	1.33	0.1
Alex Claudio	35	34	1	0	3	27	4	4.16	1.39	0.1
Sean Reid-Foley	36	41	2	0	3	46	5	4.12	1.39	0.1
Jake Reed	31	32	1	0	3	30	4	4.44	1.38	0.1
Jordan Yamamoto	20	38	2	0	1	32	7	5.09	1.42	0.0
Adam Oller	10	17	1	0	1	16	3	4.55	1.39	0.0
Thomas Szapucki	2	8	0	0	0	7	1	5.11	1.55	0.0
Yennsy Diaz	22	25	1	0	1	22	4	4.98	1.48	-0.1

 

First, let’s set the stage in terms of projected rotation.

According to ATC, the five slotted rotation arms are Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Tylor Megill, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker. Each of those starting pitchers are projected to throw for a minimum of 113 innings. David Peterson should slot in as the 6th starter, with an 87 innings projection.

Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball on a per-inning basis according to ATC. deGrom also is projected for the highest WAR of any pitcher at 5.4 (2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes is second with 5.2). Jacob is projected to make 29 starts, lockdown 11 wins and strike out 216 batters. He is projected for the lowest ERA of all qualified pitchers (2.51), and lowest WHIP of all starting pitchers (0.94). Sufficed to say, deGrom is the largest key to the Mets chances of returning to the playoffs in 2022.

Right behind deGrom is former multiple Cy Young winner, Max Scherzer. Scherzer had previously won a Cy Young award in both the National and American leagues. According to ATC, with a projected WAR of 4.0, Scherzer is still a top-8 pitcher in baseball. He is projected to be the Mets workhorse with 177 innings. The Mets are up there with the Brewers (Burnes and Woodruff) as having the best 1-2 punch in all of the major leagues.

ATC projects Tylor Megill to take the next step this season. As a 0.6 WAR player in 2021 (over 18 starts), Megill is projected to have a 4.32 ERA with 119 strikeouts in 113 innings this year – good for a 1.4 WAR.

The bullpen will once again be anchored by closer, Edwin Diaz. ATC is projecting Diaz to strike out 36% all of batters that he faces in 2022, accumulating just a 3.34 ERA (better than his 3.45 mark in 2021). Diaz is projected for 31 saves, which ranks 6^th in all of baseball (Josh Hader leads with 35).

Next up in the bullpen is 8^th inning man, Trevor May. May is projected to be the Mets’ holds leader at 20, good for 6^th in the major leagues. He is a swing-and-miss strikeout pitcher. He projects for 79 Ks in only 64 innings with a 3.73 ERA. Trevor was recently my guest on the FanGraphs Beat the Shift podcast. You can listen to that episode here. (We also recently had on Mets pitching coach, Jeremy Hefner on this episode.)

Seth Lugo should be the high leverage arm in the pen, with a projected 0.5 WAR over 63 innings (3.84 ERA). He is projected to amass 16 holds for the season, with numerous multi-inning outings. Miguel Castro should also be used in key situations. He is projected for a sub-4 ERA, 64 strikeouts in 58 innings, and 12 holds.

You can find the full 2021 ATC projections for pitchers on the FanGraphs website under the projections section, or by clicking here.

The Mets’ pitching is their strength, but much of the value lies in their top two starters. If deGrom and Scherzer can stay healthy all season long, the Mets will be in good shape. Their lineup is also deeper than most in the National League, although not star-heavy.

Full major league baseball standings based on the ATC Projections will be available in the coming weeks on FanGraphs.

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