NHL Betting Guide for May 12th
For all intents and purposes, tonight is the penultimate day of the NHL season. There are five games scheduled tonight, three tomorrow before we head into a stretch of one-offs as the North Division concludes their schedule. We’re running out of runway but are going to make the most of the betting spots available.
Here are the wagers we’re looking at from FanDuel Sportsbook!
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Senators +146, Maple Leafs -174
Spread: Senators +1.5 (-178), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+146)
Total: o6.5 -110
Odds to Stanley Cup: Senators N/A|Maple Leafs +650
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs News, Analysis, and Picks
The North Division regular-season banner is locked up, and for the first time since 1999-20, the Toronto Maple Leafs are division champs. That allows the Leafs to work through a few things as they get ready for the postseason. Rest may be part of the Leafs’ plans over the next couple of games, but Frederik Andersen will also get his first since March 19.
Goaltending has the limiting factor for the Leafs all season, and Andersen has been a part of the problem. Andersen has stopped only 89.7% of shots, which ranks 70th among every goalie in the NHL, and has -7.2 goals saved above average. That has contributed to the 12th best save percentage in the league, the Leafs’ worst metric this season.
The Leafs are also seeing worsening metrics on the road over their recent sample. Toronto has been outplayed in three of their last five games across all strengths. Production metrics are suffering, as the Leafs have attempted nine high-danger chances in three of those games and 24 of fewer scoring chances in two of five. That’s going to make keeping up with the Ottawa Senators a bit of a challenge.
The Sens have attempted 12 or more high-danger chances in four of their last six games while limiting opponents to nine or fewer in four of six. Their dominance has been even more evident on home ice, where they have posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in five of their last seven. That improved effort is reflected in their results, as Ottawa is 8-2-1 over their last 11 games.
Ottawa is picking things up on home ice while the Leafs’ road performances have suffered. The Sens are priced as steep underdogs against a Leafs team warming up their goaltender after a long layoff. We’re backing the Sens in this spot.
The Bet: Senators +146
St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Blues +126, Wild -148
Spread: Blues +1.5 (-215), Wild -1.5 (+176)
Total: o5.5 -130
Odds to Stanley Cup: Blues N/A|Wild +2500
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild News, Analysis, and Picks
The St. Louis Blues have overachieved relative to their metrics for an extended period and were fortunate to be in the playoff conversation as long as they were. Still, we’re taking a stance on the Wild now that the Blues playoff aspirations have been squashed.
The Blues have been outplayed in 12 of their last 14 games by posting an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% across all strengths. That has contributed to the Blues cumulative expected goals-for percentage of 48.8%, ranking 18th in the league. St. Louis has been hampered by an ineffective offense all season, attempting the seventh-fewest scoring chances and the fewest high-danger opportunities in the league. That’s been evident over their recent sample as well, as the Blues have attempted more than nine high-danger attempts just once over their last 11 games.
The Wild were also on an unsustainable path for an extended period but have since corrected their metrics. Minny has outplayed their opponents in four of their last five and put forth some strong offensive efforts. The Wild have averaged 11.8 high-danger chances per game over that span, going north of 10 chances in four of those games. Increased offensive production hasn’t come at the expense of defensive efforts, though, as the Wild have limited their opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances in seven straight games.
If the stars align, the Wild can catch the Avalanche in the West Division standings. We’re expecting another outstanding effort from them as they gear up for a playoff run. Wild is the play tonight.
The Bet: Wild -148