Marcus Stroman Exceeding Expectations This Season

In hopes of qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2016, the New York Mets are counting on their starting rotation to perform effectively this season. Last season we learned that the Mets can’t solely rely on ace Jacob deGrom to carry the freight himself.

Aiming to add reliable depth behind the two-time Cy Young award winner, one of the key moves that management made over the offseason was bringing back pitcher Marcus Stroman, who signed his one-year, $18.9 million qualifying offer.

After being acquired by the Mets in 2019, the former Toronto Blue Jay enjoyed a strong finish to the regular season and was looking to build off his impressive showing last season, although he suffered a torn calf and ultimately opted out of the shortened campaign.

Despite missing the 2020 season, Stroman entered this spring more determined than ever to make up for lost time, especially since he’s in a contract year once again. But with teammate Carlos Carrasco sidelined due to a torn hamstring, keeping him out until May at the earliest, this team has needed the 29-year-old to step up in a huge way.

So far, he’s been performing better than anyone could’ve imagined. Well, except for maybe Stroman himself.

While he’s only made four starts in 2021, the former first-round selection has already compiled 20 1/3 innings, producing a 0.89 ERA, 3.60 xERA, 23 ERA-, 3.24 FIP, 3.70 xFIP, .159 AVG, .175 BABIP, .186 wOBA, 15.1% strikeout rate, 24.8% whiff rate, 30.6% chase rate, 4.1% walk rate, 59.6% GB rate 7.7% HR/FB rate and a 0.4 fWAR rating.

In comparison to the rest of the majors, the right-hander currently owns the fourth-highest GB rate, the fifth-highest LOB percentage (95.6%), is tied for the sixth-best ERA-, has produced the eighth-best ERA and is tied for the 11th-highest fWAR rating among all starters who’ve earned at least 10.0 innings of work this season, according to FanGraphs.com.

Even though Stroman isn’t striking out hitters nearly as much as he did in 2019, where he posted a 20.5% strikeout rate, the 5′ 7″ hurler has been making up for that issue by barely allowing any walks and also inducing an increased amount of ground balls. Based on his 7.5% walk rate and 53.7% GB rate from the 2019 campaign, it’s probably safe to say the minor decline in his strikeout totals isn’t alarming at this point.

Digging deeper into his red-hot start, the Duke standout has been dominating right-handed batters out of the gate and has only allowed one extra-base hit during those righty-on-righty matchups. While the former Blue Devil has historically fared better against righties in his career, he’s taken his performance up to another level this season.

Over his first four starts of the season, Stroman has faced 35 right-handers and hasn’t allowed a single run or walk, creating a 1.93 FIP, 3.27 xFIP, .143 AVG, .172 BABIP, .138 wOBA, 17.1% strikeout rate and a 53.6% GB rate.

From 2016-2019, the impending free agent faced 1,449 righties, recording a 3.89 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, .259 AVG, .305 BABIP, .306 wOBA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate, 58.0% GB rate and a 15.8% HR/FB rate.

Since Stroman has only appeared in a handful of games this season, his impressive results against right-handed batters could potentially regress to his career norm by the end of the summer. Having said that, the 2019 AL All-Star has enjoyed plenty of success with his low-90s sinker and it’s largely been responsible for his strong start to the campaign.

Utilizing his sinking fastball 46.8% of the time against righties, his highest usage since 2017, the former top prospect has increased its spin rate by 79 RPMs (2,436), generating a .111 AVG, .275 xAVG, .167 SLG, .340 xSLG, .120 wOBA, .267 xwOBA, 22.7% chase rate, 12.9% whiff rate, 29.4% hard-hit rate and a 64.7% GB rate.

Comparing these stellar metrics to the 2019 campaign, the former Patchogue-Medford HS product utilized his sinker 34.0% against right-handers and it featured a spin rate of 2,357 RPM, producing a .289 AVG, .274 xAVG, .446 SLG, .422 xSLG, .352 wOBA, .341 xwOBA, 20.2% chase rate, 12.6% whiff rate, 38.7% hard-hit rate and a 62.3% GB rate.

Along with his sinker, Stroman has also made valuable progress with his low-90s four-seamer in 2021, allowing him to perform effectively with it during small doses against both right and left-handed hitters.

From 2018-2019, Stroman threw his heater less than 7.0% of the time, but with its spin rate increasing up to a career-best 2,528 RPM this season, the usage of his secondary fastball has jumped to 11.1% and has also significantly improved at inducing swings and misses.

Despite allowing a 75.0% hard-hit rate and a 94.9 mph average exit velocity, the New York native’s four-seamer has produced a 45.5% chase rate, 43.8% in zone whiff rate, 42.9% strikeout rate, 38.1% whiff rate and a 20.0% chase whiff rate. Additionally, it’s also allowed a .286 AVG, .380 xAVG, .286 SLG, .599 xSLG, .253 wOBA and a .415 xwOBA.

As for its performance in 2019, his heater created a .455 AVG, .354 xAVG, .909 SLG, .479 xSLG, .576 wOBA, .405 xwOBA, 22.2% chase whiff rate, 22.0% chase rate, 13.8% whiff rate, 10.0% in zone whiff rate and 7.7% strikeout rate.

While Stroman had previously featured a changeup within his repertoire, it never proved to be a plus pitch and he ultimately decided to scrap it this past offseason, forcing himself to develop a splitter. Following months of hard work, the veteran starter was ready to display his new weapon this spring and it’s been performing extremely well ever since then.

Marcus Stroman, Sick 87mph Split Change…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/ZtjCuIlx6Z

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 18, 2021

Utilizing his splitter just 8.8% so far, Stroman hasn’t allowed a hit against it, generating a .173 xAVG, .196 xSLG, .160 xwOBA, 25.0% strikeout rate, 40.0% whiff rate, 20.0% in zone whiff rate, 31.3% chase rate, 60.0% chase whiff rate, 66.7% GB rate, 33.3% hard-hit rate and an 86.9 mph average exit velocity.

With Stroman aiming to receive a lucrative contract after this season, enjoying one of the top statistical performances of his career could certainly help him accomplish that feat, and at his current pace, it appears the right-hander could potentially become one of the most coveted starting pitchers in free agency next winter.

From New York’s perspective, it’d make plenty of sense to keep the electric hurler beyond the 2021 campaign, especially if he continues to dominate on the mound and helps this club embark on a deep postseason run. But with teammate Noah Syndergaard also slated to hit the open market in the offseason, the front office may have to choose between re-signing one of these two pitchers.

Regardless of what transpires after the regular season concludes, these early results are a clear example of Stroman’s value to the Mets. Which could set him up for a rewarding payday in the near future as long as he remains healthy moving forward.

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