Over/Under 2021 Preview: Roberto Pérez

Will Roberto Pérez be worth more or less than 1.2 fWAR in 2021?

Based on ZiPS projections, Roberto Pérez is expected to finish 2021 with the following stats:

362 PA, 11 HR, 0 SB, 9.7 BB%, 30.9 K%, .203/.289/.345, 65 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR

Read what our writers think, then vote in the poll below and drop your own opinions in the comments and on the Let’s Go Tribe Discord.

Matt Schlichting’s Prediction: OVER

With defense alone, Bebo is probably worth 2.0 fWAR.

If that sounds stupid, keep in mind that he posted an fWAR of 1.2 in 2016 with 184 PAs on a wRC+ of 55. In 2017, it was similar: 248 PAs led to a wRC+ of 73 and an fWAR of 1.6.

His best season, 2020, paired an actual league-average bat with his usual defensive flair, leading to 3.1 fWAR. A league-average bat at catcher is actually phenomenal these days, and I don’t expect we’ll ever see it again from him.

That being said — if he catches enough innings to stride to the plate 362 times, then he’s going to crush this total. My completely unscientific guess here is that he will continue to be the best defensive catcher in all of baseball while hitting about as well as he did in 2017.

Finally, this is only the second full season in which Pérez will fully own starting catching duties. Baseball writers talk all the time about how important habit and rhythms can be to a baseball player. I’ve never fully bought into it (especially when it comes to relievers), but catcher strikes me as one of the few positions in the game where, yes, I really do think that is a factor. Maybe Pérez is poised for a breakout now that he knows he will be in the lineup every day.

I wish to subscribe to that newsletter. It’s a stupidly optimistic one with little basis in fact or reality, but man.