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NHL Betting Guide for March 2nd

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Buckle up for what will be an insane month of hockey as the NHL attempts to get back on track with their scheduling after a rash of COVID-19 postponements from the first two months of the season. It was an underdog kind of night in the NHL last night with four of the six ‘dogs winning outright (Carolina/Florida closed at a pick’em).

We’re taking a closer look at the NHL East Division in today’s betting guide!

New York Rangers vs. Buffalo Sabres, Moneyline, Total, and Odds


Moneyline: Rangers -156, Sabres +132

Spread: Rangers -1.5 (+155), Sabres +1.5 (-188)

Total: O5.5 -108

Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Rangers +6500|Sabres +8500

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

New York Rangers vs. Buffalo Sabres News, Analysis, and Picks


There’s a lot to be said about the state of the Buffalo Sabres. Days after Jack Eichel was a late scratch, Ralph Krueger and Eichel both offered different stories about his injury status. The young forward has since returned to action, but there appears to be some dysfunction within the team.

That dysfunction is certainly reflected in their metrics. The Sabres have posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in eight of their last 12. Over that span, they have out-possessed just two opponents and are being out-chanced in high-danger opportunities 12 to 10.1 and scoring chances 26.7 to 22.3 on a per-game basis. As expected, the Sabres only have three wins in that sample.

The New York Rangers are trending in the opposite direction. They’ve had an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in three of five and posted double-digit high-danger attempts in nine of their last 1o.

Advanced metrics suggest that the Rangers are progression candidates. New York’s goals-for percentage is 49.0%, below their expected goals-for percentage of 51.8%. Their PDO is also on the wrong side of 1.000 after posting a PDO of less than 1.000 in six of their last nine.

Buffalo has to find a way to get their season back on track, but that’s going to be tough to do on the road against a Rangers team that has objectively outplayed their opponents in eight of 12 home games. Rangers moneyline is the play to make.

One player prop worth taking a look at is Colin Blackwell, over 0.5 goals +320. Blackwell has goals in two straight and points in three straight. If you want to rely on inference, Ryan Strome’s point total is listed at over 0.5 -132, so the betting market likes his chances of getting on the score sheet. If he does, there’s a good chance that Blackwell is in on the tally.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers, Moneyline, Total, and Odds


Moneyline: Penguins -106, Flyers -110

Spread: Penguins +1.5 (-315), Flyers -1.5 (+250)

Total: O6.5 +104

Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Penguins +2400|Flyers +1600

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers News, Analysis, and Picks


The Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers renew acquaintances in Western PA. These teams battle it out for three straight over the next five nights.

Defense has been low on these teams’ priorities-list over the last little while. Over the Pens last 10 games, opponents are averaging 30.9 shots, 28.3 scoring chances, and 13.9 high-danger chances. That’s been worse over the last three, where opponents have had 30 or more scoring chances and 15 or more opportunities from high-danger areas.

Philadelphia’s been on a similar trajectory recently, allowing at least 10 high-danger chances in six straight and 28 or more scoring opportunities in three of four. These defensive lapses have been overlooked, thanks to an offense that is creating a lot of opportunities. Philly has had 38+ shots and 14 or more chances from high-danger areas in three straight.

The Flyers are coming off back-to-back shutouts over the Buffalo Sabres, but that’s more of an indictment of the Sabres offense than a vote of confidence for the Flyers’ goalies. In the six games before those games, Carter Hart and Brian Elliott combined for an 88.4% save percentage.

One more high-scoring trend worth noting — the Flyers have the third-most goals from high-danger areas in the league, and the Pens have allowed the third most high-danger goals. Pittsburgh has allowed seven such goals over their last three and at least one goal from a high-probability area in every game this season. Philadelphia has 10 such goals over their last six.

When these teams met at the start of the season, 16 goals were scored in two games. The total is on the high-end but so are these teams’ offensive and defensive metrics. The Flyers have scored at least three goals in five of six, and the Pens have scored three or more in four of six. These teams have the offenses to get the game over the 6.5 and the defenses to let it happen. Over 6.5 +104.

 

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