The Most Important Matchups and Best Bets for Monday’s NBA Slate

There are seven games on deck for tonight’s NBA card, including an intriguing matchup with the New Orleans hosting the Utah Jazz. Before jumping into today’s slate, let’s recap what transpired in the league on Sunday from a betting perspective.

Underdogs bettors finally had a losing Sunday after dominating for so many of the previous weeks. Favorites went 6-2 against the spread (ATS), including 3-0 ATS on the road. Overall, it was a pretty comfortable night for the public as the favorites won five games by double-digit points.

Some of the more noteworthy results included the Lakers’ 117-91 victory over the Warriors and the Knicks going one game above .500 (18-17) with a 109-90 win over the Pistons. The night’s biggest performance was turned in by the Grizzlies, who walloped the Rockets 133-84, covering the spread by a total of 45 points. That game brought joy to my heart as it was also my Sunday play of the day.

Over the last seven days, favorites have regained the momentum as they’re 34-20 ATS (63%) over that span. The season trend is now dead-even with the favorites 249-249-3 ATS.

Without spending too much time resting on our laurels, let’s dig into the Monday schedule and see if we can identify any value plays that are still on the board.

Key Matchups

There aren’t many premier games in the NBA tonight, but the Jazz-Pelicans matchup should get some eyeballs to the television set. For one, Utah has the best record at 27-7 and leads the second-ranked Lakers by 3.5 games. The Jazz will head to New Orleans to face a Pelicans team that is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record. However, the Pelicans are just 3-7 in their last 10 games overall.

New Orleans is one of the more difficult teams to figure out because, at 14-19, they should probably be a bit better than their current record shows. They’re sixth in offensive efficiency with 1.13 points per possession, but when you watch this team down the stretch, it’s in the waning minutes of the ballgame that they often struggle the most. Per NBA.com, the Pelicans are ranked 18th in the clutch category with a -1.7 net rating. Contrast that with the Jazz, who are ninth with a +6.7 net rating.

The Pelicans are 7-9 ATS at home, while the Jazz is 11-6 ATS on the road. Utah is also 11-3-1 ATS on the road when facing New Orleans, and they’ve been dominant in this series by going 32-15-4 ATS in the last 51 meetings.

I would caution that this will be Utah’s third game in four days, so the fatigue factor could certainly be a concern. Both teams, however, are very efficient offensively, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jazz continues to hoist three-pointers in this game against a Pelicans team that is dead last in allowing opponents 15.8 three-point field goals per game. Just in case you were wondering, the Jazz leads the league with 16.9 three-pointers per ballgame.

The full game total is a bit high at 236, so I’ll instead recommend playing the first half over the current number at 11.5.5.

Notable Line Moves

Jazz-Pelicans total: 234 to 236

Mavericks-Magic total: 226.5 to 221.5

Hornets-Trail Blazers total 235.5 to 232.5

Betting Breakdowns

Dallas Mavericks vs. Orlando Magic

Best Bets from the SportsGrid Betting Model 

The SportsGrid betting model is keying in on plenty of games tonight. And read more about the model’s angle on the following games below:

Hornets vs. Blazers

Player Props

Joe Cervenka sees an edge on a few player props in Monday’s slate of games at FanDuel Sportsbook.