Comparing Francisco Lindor’s 2021 Projections to Past Mets Shortstops

The wait is over: Mets baseball is officially back.

New York begins its quest toward becoming an iconic franchise under owner Steven Cohen Monday afternoon at 1:05p in its first Grapefruit League game against the Miami Marlins. The club’s offseason activity certainly grew the optimism for what’s ahead in the coming months, with projection systems also making us even more excited.

It’s also hard to not have your mouth water at the possibilities during the 2021 season upon seeing shortstop Francisco Lindor do stuff like this:

???? ???? ???? ???? @Lindor12BC pic.twitter.com/CbUy3h8MPB

— SNY (@SNYtv) February 27, 2021

Sure, it was just batting practice. And sure, it looked like a bomb, but we had no idea of whether it actually was or not. Then MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo provided some context:

Francisco Lindor just crushed a homer off Taijuan Walker to straightaway center during live BP. Nearly rolled to a storage shed beyond the fence.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) February 27, 2021

After seeing these two tweets back-to-back over the weekend, I needed to take a lap around the house to calm myself down. We already knew how massive of an upgrade Lindor will theoretically be at shortstop for this upcoming year (and, hopefully, well beyond that). However, we’re on the verge of seeing how much of an upgrade he’ll actually be now that spring training games have begun.

To continue putting this potential production in perspective, I looked at Lindor’s 2021 projections (mostly, his Steamer projection from FanGraphs), along with his 162-game averages in recent years and compared it to how past Mets shortstops have produced throughout team history.

2021 Projection and 162-Game Averages

While Lindor’s 2020 season was on the lower side of his recent outcomes, the young shortstop has been among baseball’s most productive players since debuting in 2015 when looking at fWAR. His 2021 projections are keeping that trend going.

As of right now, Lindor’s Steamer projection has him sitting right at 5.0 fWAR, which is inside the league’s top-15 highest projections. There are only two other shortstops above him on this list: Fernando Tatis Jr. (5.8 fWAR) and Corey Seager (5.3). And although a handful of Lindor’s projections may not jump off the page right away for everyone, like his .267/.340/.492 triple slash and 117 wRC+, his counting stats will surely get your attention. As of this writing, Steamer is projecting 33 home runs, 89 RBI, 110 runs scored, and 19 stolen bases for the 27-year-old. This also includes a 13.7 Def rating, which is the second-highest projected mark in baseball, behind only Andrelton Simmons of the Minnesota Twins (13.8).

The best part about these projections is they’re not far off from what he’s already done for the majority of his career. Through the past six seasons — including 2015-16 when he combined to hit just 27 home runs in 1,122 plate appearances — he’s averaged the following over a 162-game schedule: .285/.346/.488 with 29 homers, 86 RBI, 106 runs scored, and 21 stolen bases, all good for a 118 wRC+.

Comparing to Mets Shortstops of Yesteryear

After peeking at the Mets’ shortstop leaderboard, there doesn’t appear to be much of an uphill climb to be the most productive in franchise history if Lindor sticks around for multiple years.

With regard to career fWAR, Jose Reyes is the clear leader at 33.1, while Bud Harrelson comes in a distant second at 17.9. Those are the only two guys with a career fWAR greater than 10.0 at this position in the orange and blue. Lindor accumulated 29.2 in just six years with Cleveland, and he still has his physical prime ahead of him. When discussing things on a single-season basis, there have been just four seasons of 5.0-plus fWAR by a Mets shortstop, all done by Reyes between 2007 and 2011. The next-highest amount was Harrelson, who accumulated 3.8 fWAR in 1971.

While playing a majority of games at shortstop during a single season, there has been just one player who has hit 20-plus homers: Asdrubal Cabrera, who hit 23 in 2016. There have been just four different years of 100-plus runs scored by a Mets shortstop, which were once again, all accomplished by Reyes between 2007 and 2011. The highest single-season RBI total? That’d be 81, done by Reyes in 2006 (Amed Rosario challenged this mark with 72 RBI in 2019, though).

It’s kind of unfair to include Reyes in the stolen bases discussion since he owns six of the top-10 highest single-season totals (including the top four). If he’s taken out of the equation, there have been just three others who have registered at least 20 thefts (Rosario, Harrelson twice, and Frank Taveras twice).

Lastly, but most certainly not least, let’s briefly talk about wRC+. Reyes’ 142 mark during his 2011 National League batting title campaign is the best in franchise history for shortstops. There have just been two other instances (Reyes in ’08 with 116 and Cabrera in ’16 with 120) where there’s been a single-season performance better than Lindor’s average wRC+ over the past six years.

This Is Gonna Be Fun

At the time of the blockbuster trade that netted New York Lindor (and Carlos Carrasco), we all knew the Mets acquired a special player. He not only has the type of talent to succeed in a big market like New York City, but he’s also got the kind of swagger that’s needed. Seeing Lindor’s average production either be equal to or above the majority of the best single-season totals by Mets shortstops in franchise history is truly eye-opening.

It’s been a long time since we’ve had the pleasure of seeing an elite shortstop in their prime take the field in Flushing, and hopefully, it’ll be a sight we’ll see for the foreseeable future beyond 2021.

The post Comparing Francisco Lindor’s 2021 Projections to Past Mets Shortstops first appeared on Metsmerized Online.