How J.D. Davis Could Improve at Third Base This Season

Coming off a disappointing 2020 campaign, the New York Mets needed to dramatically improve their overall defense over the offseason and while they took some steps in the right direction, there’s still plenty of uncertainty regarding the third base position.

While acquiring shortstop Francisco Lindor will undoubtedly help improve the left side of the infield, the front office wasn’t able to make any upgrades at the hot corner, as they couldn’t steal Justin Turner away from the Los Angeles Dodgers and also failed to complete a trade with the Chicago Cubs for Kris Bryant.

Along with these two superstar players, management also displayed some interest in trading for Eugenio Suárez, although nothing ever materialized with the Cincinnati Reds over the winter.

Being just over a month away from Opening Day, it appears the Mets are comfortable with their current options at third base, especially since general manager Zack Scott admitted he’s content with having J.D. Davis at top of the depth chart. Though this stance could change as the season progresses, it’s clear the 27-year-old will receive another opportunity to compete for the starting third base spot in 2021.

Despite becoming the everyday third baseman midway through last season, the 6′ 3″ infielder struggled mightily in that role and became a liability at times, resulting in a -3 OAA (tied for the lowest rating among all qualified third basemen).

In addition, he also finished tied for the fewest DRS (-8), tied for the sixth-most throwing errors (two), the sixth-lowest RngR (-1.4), the 11th-lowest UZR/150 (-0.9) and tied for the 12th-lowest UZR (-0.3), according to FanGraphs.com.

As a result of his poor defensive showing, Davis ultimately lost his starting role to veteran Todd Frazier, who was acquired from the Texas Rangers before the trade deadline. Adding to his troubling second season in Queens, the right-handed slugger also faltered at the plate in 2020, as he posted just a .142 ISO, .318 BABIP, .339 wOBA, 116 wRC+ score and a slashing line of .247/.371/.389/.761 over his 229 plate appearances.

But considering the former third-round pick broke out offensively in 2019, where he produced a career-high 22 home runs and 57 RBIs, there’s plenty of optimism that he’ll turn things around in the batter’s box next season.

Having said that, there isn’t that same level of confidence in his ability to correct his defensive flaws, especially since he must improve his craft in multiple different areas.

Starting with his range, mobility is something that Davis has lacked throughout his entire career, which a huge reason why he was moved out of left field and back over to third base. While playing at the hot corner doesn’t require nearly as much movement as roaming in the outfield does, owning a career -4.3 RngR over his combined 777.0 innings at third base certainly isn’t a recipe for success.

Digging deeper into the former Houston Astro’s struggles, being positioned on the left side of the infield hasn’t been a complete waste of time, as he’s enjoyed limited success at third base over the last two seasons. Despite compiling just 489 1/3 innings at third base since 2019, the California State standout has showcased some encouraging signs when ranging to his left towards the shortstop hole.

Here’s how Davis performed at different spots last season:

In comparison, here’s how Davis performed at those same spots in 2019:

Even though Davis has performed well in one location, he hasn’t been able to replicate that same success when ranging towards the third base line or when he’s been forced to back up and play the ball on a hop. But if the Mets were to position him closer to foul territory, then he wouldn’t be forced to cover as much ground to his right, which might gradually help him improve his side-to-side movements.

As for his north and south movements, the club’s coaching staff has already tried moving the former top prospect to the edge of the grass, however, his lack of speed makes it very difficult to perform effectively against softly hit balls at that spot. With that in mind, it’d make sense to position him at medium depth, leaving the onus on the veteran infielder to further develop his range at the third base position moving forward.

Along with needing to dramatically improve his fielding at the hot corner, Davis must also work on his accuracy when throwing over the first base, as he’s committed six throwing errors over his 621 1/3 innings since 2017.

While some of these miscues were caused by his below-average range, the California native was also seen rushing his throws at times and it’ll be crucial for him to become more composed when a ball comes his way this season.

With infielders Luis Guillorme and Jonathan Villar, who signed a one-year deal with the Mets this offseason, expected to compete for playing time at third base in 2021, there’s certainly a ton of pressure on Davis to play up to his expectations this time around.

But if the right-hander falls short in that department, it’s definitely possible he could lose his starting role for a second-straight season, which would obviously be less than ideal for everyone involved.

Since he’s under team control through the 2025 campaign, Davis still features a considerable amount of value and it’ll only increase if he’s able to rediscover his offensive success from the 2019 campaign. With that in mind, if he’s pushed out of an everyday role once again, perhaps the Mets could utilize him as a trade chip and potentially land an impact third baseman closer to the trade deadline.

Regardless of what his future holds with this team, the starting third base position is Davis’ to lose as things stand right now, but a potential breakup might not be too far away if he struggles to improve those specific areas of his game this season.

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