Mets 2021 ATC Hitter Projections
We are still just a few short weeks from spring training. It has been an eventful offseason for the Queens ball club. The Mets have a new owner (with same last name as me), who has injected a shot of enthusiasm into the fan base. The Mets hired and subsequently fired a general manager. They have signed a catcher, a reliever, traded for pitching, and obtained a superstar in his prime.
Although the Mets may not be finished adding to their roster, statistical modelers (including me) have been hard at work churning models to predict the future.
I am the creator of the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projection system, which has appeared on FanGraphs since 2017. ATC is a “smart” aggregation model of other projection systems. The methodology behind ATC is similar to what Nate Silver does with his presidential forecasting at www.fivethirtyeight.com and you can read more about it here.
According to FantasyPros, ATC was the most accurate baseball projection system in 2019, and I personally was the #1 most accurate fantasy baseball expert.
The ATC Projections, which are published every year during the third week of January – is now live for the upcoming 2021 season. Full projections are available on FanGraphs.
Today, I am happy today to share with you some early findings for Mets players. But before getting to some of the 2021 ATC projections for the Mets, let’s look at some individual results from last year.
New York Mets – 2020 Player Statistics
Player Name | G | PA | HR | RBI | AVG | wRC+ | EV | WAR |
Michael Conforto | 54 | 233 | 9 | 31 | 0.322 | 157 | 88.4 | 2.0 |
Dominic Smith | 50 | 199 | 10 | 42 | 0.316 | 164 | 89.8 | 1.8 |
Brandon Nimmo | 55 | 225 | 8 | 18 | 0.28 | 148 | 87.2 | 1.5 |
Robinson Cano | 49 | 182 | 10 | 30 | 0.316 | 141 | 90.4 | 1.3 |
Jeff McNeil | 52 | 209 | 4 | 23 | 0.311 | 130 | 86.6 | 1.2 |
Andres Gimenez | 49 | 132 | 3 | 12 | 0.263 | 104 | 86.8 | 0.8 |
Luis Guillorme | 30 | 68 | 0 | 9 | 0.333 | 144 | 89.8 | 0.6 |
J.D. Davis | 56 | 229 | 6 | 19 | 0.247 | 116 | 90.1 | 0.5 |
Pete Alonso | 57 | 239 | 16 | 35 | 0.231 | 118 | 90.2 | 0.4 |
Tomas Nido | 7 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 0.292 | 149 | 88.8 | 0.3 |
Wilson Ramos | 45 | 155 | 5 | 15 | 0.239 | 89 | 89.0 | 0.2 |
Amed Rosario | 46 | 147 | 4 | 15 | 0.252 | 75 | 86.5 | 0.1 |
Jake Marisnick | 16 | 34 | 2 | 5 | 0.333 | 158 | 87.1 | 0.1 |
Todd Frazier | 14 | 51 | 2 | 5 | 0.224 | 74 | 88.5 | 0.0 |
- Michael Conforto led all hitters in wins above replacement in 2020, accumulating a 2.0 WAR in the short 60 game season. His .322 batting average was the highest amongst Mets starters.
- Dominic Smith had the highest wRC+ of all Mets at 164, which means that he was 64% better than the average major league hitter in 2020. He compiled a team high 42 RBI in just 50 games played.
- Robinson Cano had a fantastic season, finishing with 10 HRs and a .316 BA. His 90.4 average exit velocity on batted balls led the team.
- Pete Alonso mashed 16 HRs, on pace for what would have been 43 in a regular season – in just his 2nd year in the big leagues.
- A few part-time players attained high batting averages – Tomas Nido (.292), Luis Guillorme (.333) and Jake Marisnick (.333).
What comes to the forefront is the fact that almost every single player on the ’20 Mets squad produced a wRC+ of over 100. That is incredible to have such a high number of above average starters, and even the fill-in players were above average. The Mets were clearly one of the best offensive teams in all of baseball last year.
Amazingly, the four players above with the lowest wRC+ scores are no longer on the ball club (Ramos, Roario, Gimenez, Frazier).
Now, let’s turn our attention to 2021. As of today, here are the 2021 ATC Projections for New York Mets hitters:
New York Mets – 2021 Projected Statistics – ATC Projections
Player Name | AB | H | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA |
Pete Alonso | 544 | 134 | 40 | 88 | 103 | 2 | .247 | .341 | .518 | .859 | .362 |
Michael Conforto | 541 | 143 | 29 | 91 | 87 | 7 | .265 | .364 | .483 | .847 | .361 |
Brandon Nimmo | 476 | 119 | 18 | 82 | 57 | 5 | .250 | .375 | .433 | .808 | .354 |
Jeff McNeil | 555 | 163 | 18 | 81 | 74 | 4 | .294 | .361 | .461 | .821 | .354 |
Dominic Smith | 481 | 129 | 23 | 70 | 78 | 1 | .267 | .331 | .480 | .811 | .345 |
J.D. Davis | 474 | 124 | 20 | 67 | 63 | 2 | .262 | .343 | .446 | .789 | .341 |
Francisco Lindor | 598 | 159 | 29 | 94 | 82 | 18 | .267 | .333 | .473 | .806 | .340 |
Jose Martinez | 100 | 25 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | .253 | .323 | .400 | .723 | .312 |
Luis Guillorme | 229 | 58 | 3 | 28 | 25 | 5 | .253 | .338 | .350 | .688 | .307 |
James McCann | 415 | 101 | 17 | 55 | 54 | 3 | .243 | .302 | .409 | .711 | .307 |
Brandon Drury | 50 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | .228 | .283 | .376 | .659 | .281 |
Guillermo Heredia | 122 | 27 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | .223 | .293 | .351 | .643 | .276 |
Tomas Nido | 178 | 40 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 0 | .223 | .267 | .361 | .628 | .271 |
Player Notes
ATC projects Pete Alonso to lead the Mets in wOBA, HRs, RBI and slugging [Projected stats: .362 wOBA, 40 HR, 103 RBI, .518 SLG]. Only Mike Trout is projected to hit more round trippers than Alonso in 2021. Clearly, much of the Mets success in 2021 is dependent upon the Polar Bear.
Leading the team in projected batting average is none other than the flying squirrel, Jeff McNeil. With Robinson Cano suspended for the 2021 season, it appears that 2B might become his regular fielding position. I still expect him to additionally fill in at times in the outfield or at the hot corner. McNeil is projected for the 6th highest batting average in all of baseball for the upcoming season (Luis Arraez of the Twins is the projected batting average leader).
What impresses me most about McNeil is the power projection. Coupling that enormous hit tool with an 18 HR projection will make McNeil a key offensive linchpin for the aspiring Mets. As I have previously written, the contact ability combined with his power surge reminds me greatly of a former Met – Daniel Murphy.
Michael Conforto and newly acquired Francisco Lindor are each projected to hit 29 HRs, good for second/third on the team behind Alonso. ATC projects Conforto to generate more offense between the two – projected for a .364 OBP to Lindor’s .333. Francisco Lindor will be the lone stolen base threat on the ball club, projected for 18 swipes. No Met comes close to that mark (Conforto is 2nd with only 7).
Brandon Nimmo is projected by ATC to lead the team in on-base percentage in 2021. I feel that the Mets would be wise to make him the team’s every day leadoff hitter [with McNeil batting 2nd]. Nimmo is also projected for a decent number of HRs (18), but his on-base ability is truly his differentiator. At .375, he has the 11th highest projected OBP of all major leaguers.
Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis are not currently projected for full-time at-bats. With the designated hitter situation currently up in the air, ATC has shaved a few plate appearances off the tandem (for the moment). Keep an eye out on their projections as we find out more about the universal DH this off-season. If there is no DH in the NL, you could see the duo in an effective lineup platoon to start the season.
Finally, James McCann should produce above-average statistics for the catcher position. His 17 projected HRs rank as the 10th most for all MLB catchers heading into ’21.
You can find the full 2021 ATC projections on the FanGraphs website under the projections section, or by clicking here.
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