Mets’ 2021 ZiPS Projections Released

FanGraphs has submitted its upcoming ZiPS projections for the New York Mets – the eleventh entry in their annual team-by-team breakdown.

Though it does not predict team results, ZiPS (Szymborski Projection System – named after its founder, Dan Szymborski) remains one of the most reliable models for projecting output from individual players – at any position and on any side of the ball.

First created in 2004, the metric uses growth and decline trends that differ by how a player fits such demographics as age, injury history, pitch velocity, and positional value.

With ZiPS, a player’s future value generally hinges on what they accomplished in their most recent season, but regression to performance across the larger three to four years is still a factor, and past outcomes for former players with overlapping qualities feed the model every year. This, of course, means the stat becomes more accurate with every year, as more data informs the baseline numbers.

Those interested in further researching ZiPS should definitely start with this article from Szymborski himself, which offers a more specific and comprehensive rundown of the math at hand.

As it currently stands, ZiPS expects the Mets’ rotation to be one of the best in all of baseball next year. Between Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Seth Lugo, and David Peterson, FanGraphs projects roughly 13.5 wins above replacement, with deGrom accumulating nearly half the share (6.2). Given a full year of reps every fifth day, Stroman and Lugo are projected to pitch to a 3.88 and 4.10 ERA, respectively, while Peterson’s walk rate is expected to drop to 3.6 per nine from last year’s 4.3.

Additionally, Steven Matz (4.65 ERA, 4.64 FIP in 23 starts) is forecast to put up more palatable numbers, at least for a back-of-the-rotation option.

Granted, the site’s expectation that Noah Syndergaard starts in 21 games upon returning from Tommy John surgery is rather generous, and Lugo, despite the projected 23 starts, is almost certainly working out of the bullpen in some capacity next year. In the aggregate, ZiPS’ assessment of the Mets’ rotation certainly overstates its potential. However, this also means it understates what the bullpen is capable of accomplishing.

Between Edwin Diaz, Miguel Castro, Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Brad Brach, Jacob Barnes, and the recently non-tendered Chasen Shreve and Nick Tropeano, Met relievers already project to combine for a 3.8 fWAR, which is about league average.

Díaz’s 4.9 BB/9 last year is expected to return to a more sustainable 3.4, as is Castro’s 8.0 figure from 2020 (4.4 in 2021, per ZiPS). Betances is also likely to benefit from an unabridged season in Queens, as ZiPS tabs his ERA for 2021 at an improved 3.59. Familia’s control woes are slated to continue into the year at a rate of 5.8 BB/9.

Released Tuesday morning, FanGraphs’ model does not include the recently signed Trevor May, though Szymborski lists the right-hander alongside Blake Treinen and Brad Hand as a “name brand” option for the Mets to pursue in order to push the bullpen over the top. Add an established presence like Lugo to the mix, and the outlook is even brighter.

ZiPS does not anticipate the Mets’ offense losing any steam following the suspension of Robinson Cano. If anything, it only creates more value for Jeff McNeil as he takes ownership of his best position in the field: he’s projected to hit .297/.362/.464 with 16 homers in over 580 plate appearances. Cano, meanwhile, was only calculated to hit .269/.310/.424 in 393 trips to the plate.

McNeil’s predicted fWAR of 3.6 ranks only second behind Michael Conforto (3.9, thanks to an .843 OPS and .210 ISO), but Pete Alonso‘s 3.5 isn’t too far down the ladder. ZiPS projects a return to strength for Alonso in the form of a team-leading .524 SLG and 41 homers.

Perhaps as expected, the Mets’ most obvious issue will lie with their hole behind the dish and damp defense at both the hot corner and center field. The incumbent tandem of Tomas Nido and Ali Sanchez only amounts to a 0.3 fWAR, and J.D. Davis and Brandon Nimmo‘s respective DRS projections of -13 and -5 (respectively) are stark red flags. Szymbowrski lists both J.T. Realmuto and Justin Turner as fitting solutions with the leather.

Dominic Smith will remain an above average hitter by league standards, but the expected .271/.329/.474 mark will create inertia on the offensive side of things after his OPS nearly cleared 1.000 last year. Nimmo’s .437 SLG won’t light up the scoreboard quite the same way his .488 figure did across the summer.

As it stands, Szymborski describes the shortstop tandem of Andres Gimenez (.234/.294/.365, 3 DRS, 25 steals) and Amed Rosario (.268/.301/.407, -3 DRS) “adequate, if not terribly exciting.” As far as infield depth behind the two, Luis Guillorme (.256/.337/.345) is due for a significant regression.

FanGraphs does not offer full team-by-team positional rankings at such an early point in the offseason, though they will almost certainly offer a projected glimpse closer to when rosters are set and pitchers and catchers first report to spring training.

As it stands among the published teams (Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Royals, Athletics, Braves, Reds, Dodgers, Padres, Rockies), however, the combined value of the Mets’ starting options (16.5) ranks second to that of the Dodgers (18.6), and well ahead of the Braves’ (12.9).