I’m Not Worried About Pete Alonso

New York Mets first basemen Pete Alonso has endured a rough and abbreviated sophomore season in the big leagues. In many ways, his performance mirrors that of the club’s overall results: more than one glimmer of hope that a season-changing hot streak was on the horizon, but ultimately, it just never happened.

After what Alonso did during his National League Rookie of the Year campaign last season, it was almost automatic that expectations were going to be high. And in some cases, unreasonably high. After watching him bash 53 homers and obliterate team and league records along the way, that’s a burden he likely knew was coming.

Unfortunately, he just hasn’t been able to get himself on any kind of prolonged streak to turn around what at first was a slow start. Tuesday night offered one of those glimmers, though. Against the Tampa Bay Rays, Pete played a pivotal role in a 5-2 win by gathering two hits (including one homer) and three RBI. That was obviously good to see, but what struck me was how he addressed some of his struggles in his portion of the postgame press conference:

Pete Alonso cites his .215 BABIP and 88.5-mph average exit velocity as evidence that he's been more unlucky than anything this season: pic.twitter.com/F1EZ3X6Ijk

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) September 23, 2020

First of all, hearing him reference his BABIP and average exit velocity is music to this stat-driven baseball writer’s ears. I made the mistake of venturing into the replies to Anthony DiComo’s tweets, but after a minute, I didn’t really care. Is what Alonso said true? Well, yes, it is. Is it the sole reason why he’s having a tough year? Well, no, it’s not. But in this game of failure, if that’s what is going to keep his spirits up, I’m OK with it. We’ve seen enough of the 25-year-old to know he’s not just going to sit back and blame bad luck for this year — he’s going to work his behind off to get better and make 2020 a distant memory.

So, I don’t necessarily care about the reasoning he shared in the above clip. I do care that he’s talking in such a specific way because it means he’s paying attention to his plate approach, which actually hasn’t changed much. Here’s a look at how his batted-ball profile compares over the past two years (2020 stats current through Tuesday’s game):

Obviously there’s a huge change in his hard-hit rate, which has showed up in his hard-hit rate for fly balls, which is currently 30.5% after settling in at 53.8% in 2019. And even though he’s among the top of the league in average exit velocity, it’s still down a couple ticks from last year.

When it comes to Alonso’s plate discipline, those numbers are also virtually identical to his award-winning rookie season. His contact rate on balls outside the strike zone has actually decreased significantly, while his contact rate within the zone has risen slightly.

This has shown out in his walk (10.4% to 9.4%) and strikeout rates (26.4% to 26.5%), too. Even though he’s been struggling, it’s not as if his approach has deteriorated in an effort to bust out of this funk. In my opinion, that would be a more worrisome trend had it become apparent.

That leaves a lack of execution, especially on pitches he offers at within the zone. Swinging and missing more often and not making the same amount of hard contact can be viewed as direct results of pressing and trying to do too much. His performance on four-seam fastballs in 2019 ( 109 wRC+, 21 homers) and this year (109 wRC+, six homers) is a great example of that.

Any player will need to make adjustments as the league figures out how to contain them, and this is no different. Alonso won’t have the benefit of another 102 games to make in-season adjustments, but he will take everything home with him and do what he can to be ready for Spring Training in February.

Could the Mets have had more realistic playoff hopes right now if Alonso found a groove at the plate? Yes, no doubt. I also know that he doesn’t pitch, and the rotation performance beyond Jacob deGrom (and, to a lesser degree, David Peterson) has been more detrimental to the club than its first baseman.

There will be many out on #MetsTwitter saying Alonso is a bust and New York should’ve traded him when his value was high. Could he be? Well, sure, any ball player could eventually become a bust — this is the big leagues we’re talking about. However, it’ll always be hard for me to believe that someone with 50-plus homer power just suddenly loses it, especially before hitting his physical prime.

This year wasn’t what Alonso or the Mets were hoping for. The battle may be close to being over, but the war rages on. And If there’s one thing we all know about Alonso, it’s that he loves preparing for battle.